Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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443 FXUS61 KBOX 260334 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1034 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move offshore overnight. Showers will move offshore with the front. Blustery conditions with more seasonable temperatures are expected for Sunday. Well above normal temperatures return Monday, and likely remain through much of next week. A couple of weather systems will bring periods of wet weather Tuesday into Thursday. Colder air looks to return late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Cold front moving over RI and Eastern MA will move offshore around midnight or shortly after. Sharp temperature and dew point changes are noted behind the front as winds shift from the west and northwest. With the focus of the support for showers moving offshore, expect pcpn over Srn New England to taper off. Satellite imagery shows the back edge of the frontal clouds moving into Western CT and MA. Lower clouds over southeast NY are showing breaks. Expect at least partial clearing later at night. Winds behind the front are showing gusts of 20-25 knots. Farther upstream in Western NY and Ontario the gusts are 30-37 knots. Expect winds to become gusty overnight, although it may take until late for the stronger gusts to make themselves known. No significant changes planned to temps. General range of min temps will be in the 30s, with some mid and upper 20s possible in the East Slope of the Berks and northern Worcester Hills. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday...Mid level shortwave moves east of New Eng. Expect partly to mosunny skies with sct-bkn strato-cu developing in cold advection pattern. Gusty W/NW winds expected with soundings supporting gusts to 35 mph with chance of a few gusts over 40 mph across the higher terrain where low prob a wind advisory may be needed. Much colder airmass Sun as 850 mb temps drop to -8 to -10C. However, temps will likely overachieve a bit as soundings indicate mixing above 850 mb with good downsloping. Expect maxes ranging from the upper 30s higher elevations to the mid 40s in the coastal plain with a few upper 40s possible. Sunday night... Surface high moves off mid Atlc coast with ridge axis moving east of New Eng. Winds will diminish and shift to SW overnight. Column is dry except for some increase in mid/high level moisture. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with mins ranging through the 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Above average temperatures for next week * Widespread showers possible Wednesday/Thursday * More seasonable conditions return Friday Overview... 25/12Z guidance remains in rather good agreement through this period. Mainly a nearly zonal flow aloft near New England, while a deeper mid level trough develops over the western USA. This would favor above normal temperatures, as well as a storm track to our north and west. Eventually, this mid level trough will move east, reacquainting our region to winter. Favored a consensus approach to smooth over the less predictable details. Timing the arrival of the aforementioned trough is not yet set in stone, and could change with later forecasts. Details... Monday...High confidence. High pressure remains to our south, maintaining a southwest flow for our region with dry weather. Expecting another good mixing day, with strong west winds of 40-50 kt at 925 mb. Gusty winds should be the result. Eventually, this high pressure moves off to the east. This should permit a shortwave passing just south of our region to bring a chance of showers Monday night towards the south coast. It`s possible this wave passes even farther south, which would keep mean drier weather Monday night. Tuesday...High confidence. High pressure continues to move east, as a second, more potent, shortwave arrives later in the day. Southwest flow aloft will help saturate the profile. Depending on when this occurs, we could see a few flakes north of the Pike early in the day. However, confidence remains low on any snow occurring. Will continue the forecast of clouds and showers. Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate confidence. Main weather producer for this portion of the forecast still anticipated to impact our region sometime between early Wednesday morning and Thursday afternoon. The low pressure should stay well to our north and west, so we`re looking at a more wet than white forecast. South to southwest winds will maintain temperatures well above average for late February. Moisture content with this system is above normal for this time of year. However, this system is progressive, so still not expecting a large amount of rain. Very strong low level jet may impact our region, if it comes farther north. Any heavy rainfall could produce strong gusts. Some weak instability, so thunderstorms are possible. Still a lot of details to work out, but a system to watch in the coming days. Friday and beyond...Moderate confidence. As the cold front with the mid week low pressure passes through our region, west to northwest winds take a hold across our region. Mainly dry weather with a return to more wintry temperatures. Can see a scenario where ocean-effect clouds and snow could develop, if temperatures get low enough. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/... Overnight...Moderate-High confidence. At 10 pm LIFR cigs and vsbys were in eastern MA and coastal RI with mostly VFR conditions in the Central and Western areas. As the cold front moves off the coast, expect all areas to improve to VFR, with eventual clearing by morning. Winds shifting from the west and northwest overnight will gust to around 25 knots, and gusts may reach 30-35 knots late at night. Sunday...High confidence. VFR with sct-bkn cigs 4-5k ft. W/NW gusts to 30 kt, higher gusts possible over higher terrain in the morning. Sunday night...High confidence. VFR. Diminishing W wind becoming SW overnight. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence through this evening, then high confidence in improving conditions overnight. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence through this evening, then high confidence in improving conditions late this evening. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday...High confidence. VFR with westerly wind gusts near 20-30 kt. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Generally VFR, with MVFR conditions possible south of the Pike in showers. Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate confidence. MVFR to possible IFR in -SHRA/-RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. Overnight...Moderate-high confidence. Southerly winds shift to W/NW behind a cold front by 1-2 am. Increasing post-frontal winds with a few marginal gale force gusts to 35 kt expected. Will continue gales for most of the open waters. Sunday...High confidence. W/NW gusts to 30-35 kt, especially during the morning with a gradual diminishing trend during the afternoon. Sunday night...High confidence. Diminishing W winds in the evening becoming SW overnight. Another surge of 25-30 kt gusts expected toward daybreak. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday...High confidence. Improving conditions with gusts near 20 kts and seas beginning to subside as high pressure builds over the southern waters. Tuesday...High confidence. Relatively quiet boating weather during the day. Seas build late Tuesday night Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate confidence. More widespread rainfall with lower vsbys possible. Increasing south to southwest winds with building seas. Small Craft Advisories likely, with a low risk for gale force gusts. && .HYDROLOGY... We will need to monitor rising water levels across southern New England into early next week. Much, if not all, of our snowpack has, or will have, melted. There is still much more snowpack upstream, over northern new England, that will push into the headwaters and head downstream. Some river levels could approach action stage. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR YESTERDAY BOS 73/2017 - previous record 70/1985 PVD 72/1985 - topped off at 71 degrees (no record) BDL 73/1985 - topped off at 72 degrees (no record) ORH 69/2017 - previous record 67/1985 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR YESTERDAY BOS 49/1930 - bottomed out at 46 (no record) PVD 45/2017 - ties previous record of 45/1984 BDL 43/1981 - bottomed out at 42 (no record) ORH 48/2017 - previous record 46/1985 RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY BOS 65/1930 * broken 69 degrees PVD 69/1976 BDL 70/1976 * tied 70 degrees ORH 64/1976 * broken 65 degrees RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR TODAY BOS 46/1891 PVD 45/1930 BDL 45/1930 ORH 37/1996, 1984, 1976 DEW POINTS OF NOTE FOR YESTERDAY BOS Max Dew Point 54 ties highest for date set in 1985 PVD Max Dew Point 53 is highest for date. Previous high 50/1990 BDL Max Dew Point 54 is highest for date. Previous high 49/1990 ORH Max Dew Point 53 is highest for date. Previous high 48/1985 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ237. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/KJC NEAR TERM...WTB/Belk/KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...WTB/Belk/KJC MARINE...WTB/Belk/KJC HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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