Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 252035 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 335 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES. SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT... WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BIG PICTURE... SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN. THE DAILIES... THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST- MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING. BUT IT MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES. MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDENCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY. MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST. TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40 KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING. TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS. FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ019-022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235- 237-255-256. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...WTB/EVT

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