Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281350 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 950 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOLLOW TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE...LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ERODING WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AS DISCERNED FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. LOT OF DRY AIR ENCAPSULATED PER 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHATHAM. HIGH PRESSURE AND CONFLUENT FLOW ARE GOING TO PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING IF MODELED MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT. BELIEVE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND DRY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLE-SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR S/W CT AND RI LATE AND MAINLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE PUSH OF MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY AND POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY E. WILL KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S/W NEW ENGLAND MAINLY CONFINED TO CT / RI. INCREASING CLOUDS PER OVER-RUNNING THOUGH KEPT MAINLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE WITH A MEAN W TO E FLOW AND PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SINKING AIR TO THE N. HIGHS INTO THE 60S. COOLER ALONG THE SHORE. WILL SEE A SEA-BREEZE KICK IN CLOSE TO NOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF S NEW ENGLAND LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THESE CLOUDS AND THE EXTENT OF THEM WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES GET OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS PROVIDED OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN QUICKLY ENOUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN CT AND RI AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR S. FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO S NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS LINGERING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT * COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN/MON * IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS OVERVIEW... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROF LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN BUT GENERAL THEME WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN INTO MON AS BOUNDARY SETS UP TO THE SOUTH WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TUE BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MILD AND DRY WEATHER HANGS ON INTO WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY BE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. DETAILS... FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING OFF NJ COAST FRI NIGHT WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOSTLY SW OF NEW ENG BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHERN EDGE COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF CT INTO S RI FRI EVENING. THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS SAT WILL REACH INTO THE 60S INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST. SUN INTO MON... MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO WITH OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF STEADIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING ALL THE TIME...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS SUN INTO MON AND POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS FURTHER. COULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR. TUE INTO WED... LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER TUE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AS MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WED. GFS IS DRY AND MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT ECMWF HAS LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE WITH RAIN THREATENING AT LEAST THE COAST WITH COOL NE FLOW. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S-COAST RI/MA TONIGHT. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING BY NOON ALONG BOTH E/S COASTS TODAY. DOMINANT ONSHORE E FLOW FOR FRIDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...WINDS TURNING E AROUND 15Z /11A/ INITIALLY LIGHT BUT INCREASING CLOSE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO EVENING WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY. KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SUNDAY INTO MON...INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL

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