Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 291358 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600 MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS. WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED * MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK * INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND OVERVIEW... NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY OCCUR. DETAILS... * MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. * TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. * WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. * THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SAT OR SUN. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000 FEET. MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE. COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT TIME. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA. TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 235-237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN

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