-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 101733
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
133 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY TODAY AND TONIGHT...YIELDING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH COAST. ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND TURNING LESS HUMID. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
W FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
HIGH PRES. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT BASICALLY THROUGH ACK SOUND
SW TOWARD LI. DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS THANKS TO CONVECTION OFF
THE DELMARVA. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN WARRANTED FOR
ACK MAINLY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE VINEYARD AND S COAST OF CAPE
COD. WILL MAINTAIN THESE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT DON/T HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING HIGHER. OTHERWISE...STILL AWAITING SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR E COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERY WEATHER ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS SOME
CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE AREA
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMER
ACROSS THE METRO REGION OF BOS AND PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH THE STALLED
FRONT STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
DRY...SOME INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MAY PRODUCE
A FEW MORE CLOUDS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
QPF ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
SOME LIFT. BECAUSE THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS PER SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE CHANCE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THEN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PLEASANT/DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID FRI NIGHT/SAT
* BECOMING UNSETTLED LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO PROVIDE DRIER AND
LESS HUMID MID SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER
SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WITH A PIECE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GEFS ANOMALIES
SUGGEST 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL TO ABOUT -3 SD BELOW OVER THIS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE
OF ITS FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY BUT MORE LIKELY MON AND
TUE OF NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND
ECENS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VERY PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION. WEAK
PGRAD WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES KEEPING THE COASTLINE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. DEW PTS IN THE 50S WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S AND HIGHS 80-85.

SUN/MON/TUE....WEATHER BECOMES UNSETTLED AS UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE FAST
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ARRIVING SUN.
REMAINDER OF THE GUID IS SLOWER KEEPING DRY WEATHER HERE UNTIL
NIGHTFALL/SUN EVENING. HIGHER RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS COMES MON AND
TUE AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STRONG FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH AN
INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TROUGH MAY HAVE ENOUGH
AMPLIFICATION TO BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW FOR GOOD ATLC INFLOW
YIELDING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ALSO TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID/UPR LVL TROUGH SHOULD BE
MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
TREND TOWARD DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MOST
EXCEPT ACK THIS EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
VFR FOR MOST. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE ACK...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOG UNTIL LATE. ALSO...SOME
RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ACK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS
WITH LIGHT W WINDS ELSEWHERE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
VFR. SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS. START
TIME IS LIKELY 15Z-17Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY TAKE
UNTIL 18Z-20Z TO START THIS TODAY. SHOULD START 14-15Z TOMORROW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY MON AS RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
DURING BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY WEATHER ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25 KT. SCA CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD DROP LATE THIS MORNING AS ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IDEAL BOATING WEATHER WITH GOOD
VSBY/DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE WITH RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASING. SSW WINDS INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN