Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 041802 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADY RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING*** 2 PM UPDATE... RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN OUR REGION. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AIDED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT ... WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS. THURSDAY ... FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT /WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY */ OVERVIEW... COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N- STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE STEADY/HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. NE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. SO WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT SEAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET. ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT GETS A LOOK AT IT. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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325 AM UPDATE ... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS. ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORRISSEY BLVD.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235- 237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA

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