-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

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430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WAVERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TODAY RESULTING IN
A MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MASS COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE
COLUMN. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

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THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE SEAS
WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED SCA
ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO
OFFSHORE LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...

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SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.
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&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...STAFF