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000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG