Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161935 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 335 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and pleasant conditions continue into tomorrow. A weather system moving through the Great Lakes Region towards the end of the workweek will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to southern New England during Friday and Saturday. High pressure returns with fair seasonable weather Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing our next chance of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Very weak trof remains in place across S New England this afternoon and has been the reason that dwpts are failing to mix as well as previously forecast. Although dwpts are shifting into the upper 50s, there remains a few low 60s this afternoon. However, noting that the CU field continues to dissipate across N New England suggesting that as the trof weakens (especially this evening), the drier air should infiltrate the low lvls and allow the dwpts to continue to diminish. This gradual drop in dwpts, along with a trend toward SKC conditions generally across the board, combined with a weak sfc pres gradient should allow for a good radiational cooling night. Mins look to drop into the 50s in most locations expect the warmest heat islands. Cannot rule out a few upper 40s in the most sheltered valleys of NW MA, but these would generally be few and far between. Overall, a good sleeping night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Tomorrow... High pres crests over the region providing stout subsidence. Despite the mostly sunny conditions this suggests, the combination of suppressed mixing and a cooler start to the day will lead to overall high temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday. This is also in spite of generally W flow. Mainly upper 70s and low 80s in the warmest spots where the downsloping can be maximized. Overall a pleasant day especially with dwpts remaining in the 50s. Will still need to watch mainly exposed beaches across Cape Cod and Nantucket, as the remnants of Gert continue to shift east, a lingering swell could maintain a moderate risk for rip currents through the day in these areas. Tomorrow night... A pleasant evening to start, however upper lvl wave will be tilting and lifting through Ontario and Quebec with sfc wave pushing a warm front toward New England. PWATs increase through the overnight hours, such that by 12Z Fri, they near 2.00 inches (or nearly 2 std deviations above normal). Initial overruning is weak and this moisture load is from the top of the column to the sfc. Therefore, expecting only building clouds through the evening, with the risk for any precipitation holding off until the early morning hours. Indeed, timing of measurable QPF has slowed on regional models due to this initial lack of lift and dry column. Still could see some wetting rainfall by sunrise mainly W of the Worcester hills in MA and Thames river region of CT. Noting some QPF bullseyes, but these are mostly likely some convective feedback. Column remains relatively stable through 12Z. The increased moisture from W-E will limit diurnal cooling in spite of the weak pres gradient to start. Coolest areas will likely be across E MA/RI, where some radiational cooling can occur initially. Overnight mins range from the upper 50s in these cooler spots to the low 60s elsewhere due to the increased cloud cover.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Details... Friday and Saturday... Moderate confidence. During Friday and Saturday short waves move eastward thru our area, with the upper ridge axis shifting offshore and upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region, gradually approaching our area. Surface high pressure slides further offshore while surface low churns thru northern Great Lakes Region, heading towards southern Quebec. On Friday a warm front associated with the Great Lakes surface low lifts northward into our area. Southerly flow will bring deep moisture to southern New England, with precipitable water values increasing to around 2 inches by midday. This in conjunction with short waves will allow for rain/showers Friday-Fri night. Lack of surface-based CAPE on Friday, but surface LIs drop to 0 to -2 and K indices mid 30s. Should be primarily showers but can`t rule out rumbles of thunder. Could see brief heavy downpours. During Saturday the surface low`s associated cold front advances eastward through our region, while upper trough approaches from the west. Models also indicate a zone of upper difluence affecting our area. While deeper moisture axis shifts offshore, we still start the day with precipitable water 1.5 inches or so across the eastern half of the area, somewhat less later in the day. Cape values 500-1000 J/Kg. Expecting scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Max temps are expected to be mainly in the 70s on Friday. Airmass warms several degrees Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. High dew points should contribute to areas of fog each night/early morning. Anticipating a drying trend Saturday night, however models hint at potential for a weak surface low developing along the front in northern New England as the upper trough passes thru New England, so this could keep some clouds and a chance for light rain in our area at least early. Patchy fog possible. Sunday through Wednesday... Upper trough lifts out during the Sunday with surface high pressure building east into the area during Sunday and Monday. So anticipating a period of mainly dry weather. Then the high moves offshore Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing moisture later Tuesday as another short wave and cold front approach from the west. This could bring our next round of showers for late Tuesday-Tue night and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday Night/... Through 00Z...High confidence. N-NW winds continue with gusts around 15kt at times. These subside especially after 21Z. VFR. CU with bases around 5kft. Tonight into tomorrow...High confidence. VFR except some very patchy ground fog early AM mainly at typically prone terminals. Winds shift lightly W during the day except sea breezes along coast. Tomorrow night...Moderate confidence. Area of rainfall accompanied by a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions late, especially during the early Fri morning hours. VFR to start the overnight. Winds shift to the S. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze should generally remain offshore this afternoon. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Monday... Moderate confidence. Friday...Trending to MVFR/IFR in showers, scattered thunderstorms and areas of fog. Saturday...MVFR/IFR to start. Improving to VFR, except for possibly the Cape and Islands where MVFR/IFR could linger thru the day. Then localized MVFR/IFR Saturday night in patchy fog possible. Sunday and Monday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence. Noting seas have reached 8-9 ft along the open ocean waters S of S New England as hurricane Gert begins its E shift. This will allow these seas to gradually recede through the overnight hours. Small craft advisories continue, but will be able to be dropped through the overnight hours. Otherwise, mainly quiet boating weather continued into tomorrow night after these seas recede. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday... Winds/seas below SCA thresholds to start, however during late Friday/Fri night may see some southerly wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas building to 3-5 feet Friday night. Increasing chance of showers west to east during Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday night and reduced visibility in areas of fog. Saturday... Lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday, with reduced visibility in patchy fog. Seas 3 to 6 feet on the outer waters, and possibly the exposed portions of the southern waters, subsiding during Sat night. Southerly winds Saturday turn to the west Saturday night with gusts to 25 kts possible. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Sunday and Monday... High pressure builds over the waters. Winds and seas expected to be below SCA thresholds. Isolated showers possible early Sunday, but these move off to the east during the morning.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020- 022>024. RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 3 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Doody/NMB NEAR TERM...Doody SHORT TERM...Doody LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...Doody/NMB MARINE...Doody/NMB

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