Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 021949 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 349 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE RESULTING IN DRIER BUT COOL WEATHER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN WED. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER LINGERS INTO MUCH OF THU WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST DAYS...BUT A WASHOUT NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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345 PM UPDATE... THIS EVENING... RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH BACK EDGE AT 330 PM INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT-RI TO JUST SOUTH OF BOSTON...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD AS WELL. WATCHING SECOND BATCH OF RAIN OVER NORTHEAST PA INTO NORTHERN NJ...NYC AREA...LONG ISLAND AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE QUEBEC SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER IS ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO MUCH OF MA/NORTHERN CT-RI...WHICH IS ERODING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD AND PRECLUDING MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS THIS BAND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH COAST. AT 18Z THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING BEST WHEN COMPARED TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH THE 12Z GFS THE WORST. THUS THIS EVENING/S FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A NON-GFS SOLUTION. AS THE RAIN ENDS TEMPS ARE CLIMBING FROM THE U40S INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE! OVERNIGHT... K INDICES FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT BECOME NW INSTEAD N-NE WHICH MAY PRECLUDE COMPLETE DRYING AT THE SURFACE. THUS PATCHY STRATUS-S/CU MAY LINGER ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NEITHER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AS 1027 MB ANTICYCLONE ADVECTS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DRAINING COOL AIR SOUTHWARD. THUS ALL LOCATIONS FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING TO AT OR JUST UNDER 40.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WEDNESDAY... WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO SCT TO PERHAPS BROKEN SCU/CU MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS PARTIAL JUNE SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR VERY PLEASANT WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL COOL OFF THE COASTLINE. STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE WILL WARM MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU60S FOR MOST LOCALES...70-75 CT RVR VLY AND 55-60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. WED NIGHT... 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS FOR TEMPS TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET ESPECIALLY INLAND REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME LAYER. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARD MORNING ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST HORIZON.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES * DRY AND SEASONABLE SUN THEN THREAT OF SHOWERS RETURNS MON AND TUE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEL RUN. THEY ARE OFFSET TIMING WISE AT THE VERY LEAST WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. SEEMS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...IF NOT THE OPERATIONAL RUN AS WELL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL GUIDE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THAT. OVERALL...WE/LL START THE FORECAST OFF WITH ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THAT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE. AND FINALLY SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SLOWLY BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT BUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THRU 00Z... RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVANCED EASTWARD. RAIN OVER NORTHEAST PA...NORTHERN NJ INTO SOUTHEAST NY STATE WILL TRACK ESE AND BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AFTER 00Z... GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH RAIN EXITING THE SOUTH COAST AROUND 00Z. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT AREAL COVERAGE. WEDNESDAY... LOW PROB OF PATCHY LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING BUT ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 15Z. NORTH WINDS TREND NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WED NIGHT... VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN MA LATE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLD -SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... MODEST NNE WINDS AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM GEORGES BANK TO SE OF NOVA SCOTIA TOWARD MORNING. COMBINATION OF MODEST NNE WIND AND LONG FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAIN THIS EVENING MOVES OFFSHORE FROM NW TO SE WITH VSBY IMPROVING. WED... HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM QUEBEC. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE. VSBY GOOD ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. WED NIGHT... MORE OF THE SAME...LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY... BOS...50...1946 BDL...50...1907 (RECORD FOR THE MONTH) PVD...47...1907 (RECORD FOR THE MONTH) ORH...47...1946 (RECORD FOR THE MONTH) && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG MARINE...NOCERA/RLG CLIMATE...KB

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