-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 210615
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE
WARMER ON TUESDAY...WET WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND WHICH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF WET WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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150 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT
05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS. THIS IS ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SETTLE IN ACROSS SOME OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS...THOUGH ALSO NOTING QUICK TEMP DROPS ALONG
THE S COAST AS WELL AS ACROSS SW NH.

HAVE UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND INCORPORATED
INTO OVERNIGHT TRENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH...AND INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR WEAK SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THE PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER OCEAN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING
COASTS. ONCE THE SEA BREEZES DIE OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MA...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE.

HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - COLD FRONT AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR LATE TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT
 - BREEZY AND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
 - ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS MASS
FIELDS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD BALANCE ALBEIT SOME AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES.
THEREAFTER YOU ARE IN ONE OF TWO CAMPS TOWARDS THE LATE-WEEK: EITHER
AN AMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
SUBSEQUENT SLOWER WAVE PROGRESSION...OR A FAST-STRETCHED ZONAL-FLOW
REGIME. PREFER THE FORMER WITH THE 20.12Z GFS SHOWING A TIGHTENING
CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD LEND TO THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION TOWARDS THE LATER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY H925 TEMPS +10-12C AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS INTO THE 70S WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORE WITH AN E-COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THEREAFTER SUFFICIENT
LIFT-DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
THOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE ON THE LOW-END OF THRESHOLDS. SOME
HINT PER THE 20.12Z NAM OF SHOWERS BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PERHAPS THIS ATTRIBUTABLE TO LINGERING HIGH PRES AND
DRY AIR AS WELL AS A WEAKENING JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. BUT FEEL LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL ASCENT OF PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
TO YIELD THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AGAINST AN INTENSIFYING LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. BLUSTERY NW FLOW AND LIKELY SCATTERED-BROKEN
CLOUD DECKS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER. H925
WINDS OF 30-40 KTS COUPLED WITH GOOD BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO
H85. MAY NEED CONSIDER WIND-ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THE LEVEL OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE LATE-APRIL SUN.

CLOUDS CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRES. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL
LATE. IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT BELOW WIND-ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY WITH RH-VALUES LIKELY AROUND 30-PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR...THE REGION IS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR PRECIP FOR THE MONTH
OF APRIL. THUS AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ATTENDANT SHOWERY WEATHER
SUBSEQUENT OF STRONG SW GULF-MOISTURE FLOW UNDERGOING BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WARM-FRONT BENEATH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER THOUGH ONCE AGAIN CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE ON THE
LOW-END OF THRESHOLDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

PENDING BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY...A SERIES OF COLD-FRONTS WILL
USHER RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALBEIT MOISTURE DEPRIVED...SO
EXPECT LIGHT ACTIVITY. BREEZY NW FLOW TO THE REAR RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN WILL START TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE SE-S UP TO AROUND 10 KT. HOWEVER...NOTING SEA BREEZES KICKING
IN ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S-SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR ALONG S COAST AFTER 20Z. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS LATE IN THE DAY IN SCT SHOWERS. SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT
MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE ANTICIPATED BY
16Z-18Z TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW END VFR / MVFR
OVERNIGHT. SHRA. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. BREEZY SW FLOW...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND...BACKING NW AND INCREASING.
IMPROVING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS FOR WEDNESDAY. SKC THURSDAY. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOWERING CIGS TOWARDS LATE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS.
NO VISIBILITY ISSUES ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
KTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE WAVES BUILD UP TO 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACKING NW AND GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KTS. WILL LIKELY NEED GALE FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE PERIOD.
WAVES BUILDING UP TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALES
SHOULD DROP OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY REQUIRING CONVERSION TO
SMALL CRAFT.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NW WINDS DIMINISHING AND TURNING OUT OF THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
ENERGY TO DISSIPATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD DROP OFF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF