Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 260819 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 420 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Very warm to hot weather will continue through Saturday, but it will be a bit cooler at times on the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler weather to eastern MA Sunday with warm weather continuing elsewhere. Dry weather dominates through Sunday other than isolated showers/thunderstorms at times. Near or above normal temperatures continue for much of next week and there is the potential for a period of more widespread showers Monday and/or Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 210 AM Update... Leading edge of high clouds moving into portions of the CT valley at 06Z as seen on latest IR satellite imagery, well ahead of approaching H5 short wave in the general W flow aloft. A weak, dry cold front pretty much stalled across S VT/NH into S coastal ME. Little if any moisture with this system, so will remain dry through sunrise. Temps remain warm across the region early this morning, mainly in the mid-upper 50s across N central and W MA, ranging to around 70 in the urban centers at 06Z. May see some patchy fog develop through around 12Z as temps fall close to the dewpts across the normally susceptible inland valley locations, especially the mid CT valley in MA. Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Today...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level ridge centers itself over southern New England. With a much weaker gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam dunk. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under mostly sunny skies. Tonight...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s for most places. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Highlights... * Hot Sat w/highs mainly 90-95 away from the immediate coast. * Near or above normal temperatures through much of next week * Mainly dry Sat/Sun other than iso showers/t-storms but activity could be a bit more organized Sun afternoon across interior * Its possible a more widespread area of showers affects the region Mon and/or Tue but that remains highly uncertain Details... Friday night...While it remains uncertain if any isolated convection will affect the region late Friday it should diminish during the evening hours. Otherwise, dry weather with upper level ridging in control. Low temps will only drop to between 60 and 65 in most locations. Some patchy ground fog will likely develop in the typically prone locations given increasing low level moisture. Saturday...Unseasonably hot weather anticipated across most of our region. 850T around +16c with plenty of sunshine and a well mixed atmosphere should yield highs between 90 and 95 in most locations away from the immediate coast where localized sea breezes may develop. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make it feel a bit muggy. The majority of Saturday will be dry, but there is the risk for some isolated to widely scattered convection Saturday afternoon and evening. As usual, mesoscale processes will dictate what happens and its not clear cut. A weak pre-frontal trough will combined with modest instability with Capes increasing to between 1000 and 2000 J/KG. Upper level ridging and lack of forcing will certainly be limiting factors. Sea breeze convergence and terrain impacts might be enough to trigger isolated to widely scattered convection Sat afternoon and evening. 0 to 6 KM shear is weak, so if anything develops the overall severe weather threat would be low. However, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out with decent instability and potentially large temp/dewpoint spreads. Very localized heavy rainfall would also also be possible given any storm that is able to develop will be slow moving. In a nutshell, much of the region will likely remain dry Saturday but isolated slow moving showers/t-storms with very localized heavy rainfall can not be ruled out. Sunday... The backdoor cold front pushes across the region from east to west. Timing of the front remains uncertain and a 6 hour shift in either direction will make a huge difference in high temperatures. Overall, thinking interior gets very warm while cooler air works into Eastern MA. A few showers may accompany the cold front, but will have to watch for a bit more organized area of scattered showers/thunderstorms with very localized heavy rainfall across Western MA/Northern CT Sunday afternoon. This will depend upon how much instability develops ahead of the backdoor front and its exact timing. Monday and Tuesday... A disturbance currently northeast of the Bahamas will track northwest and probably not directly impact our region. However, a plume of its tropical moisture may get pulled north into southern New England ahead of a cold front. Low confidence on how this all plays out, but there is at least a risk for a more organized/widespread area of rain showers. Temps will remain near or above normal and exact temps be determined by timing of potential clouds/showers. Wednesday... Low confidence this far out but do not see any organized precipitation threats. Temps near or above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog with local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS across interior valleys through 12Z. Light W-SW or calm winds shift to W-NW across N MA. Today...High confidence. VFR. Expect sea breezes to develop by mid to late morning on both coasts, lasting through mid to late afternoon. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for much of the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly across W MA/N central CT, but briefly may reach into NE CT/central MA this evening. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR conditions after 07Z-08Z across interior valleys. Friday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR conditions with low risk of a few brief scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly across the interior. Also, patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations through mid morning. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday night through Monday/... Friday night and Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR other than a few hours of patchy ground fog toward daybreak Sat in the typically prone locations. Isolated showers/t-storms may also result in brief/localized lower conditions. Sunday...Low to moderate confidence. May see some MVFR CIGS work into northern and eastern MA behind the backdoor cold front. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of any widely scattered convection. Monday...Low confidence. Potential for a period of MVFR-IFR conditions in low clouds and some showers but that remains highly uncertain.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Thursday night. Outlook /Friday night through Monday/...High Confidence. Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds through the period. Biggest concern is Saturday afternoon along the south coast...where some near shore lower 20 knot wind gusts may occur resulting in choppy seas.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026. RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...Frank/Nocera/EVT MARINE...Frank/Nocera/RLG/EVT

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