Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 040750 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 350 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A BRIEF END TO THE RECENT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COMBINATION OF LAPS/MSAS AND SFC OBS SUGGEST THAT THE NOSE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW MAKING IT/S WAY INTO ESSEX CO MA. NOTING RAPID PRES RISES AND DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S UPSTREAM. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SW THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING NE WINDS AS IT DOES SO. EXPECT ANY PATCHY CLOUDS/FOG TO GIVE WAY TOWARD CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO APPROACH +12C BY AFTERNOON. BL MIXING WILL BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO DECENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO WITH FULL MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY TO HOLD NEAR 80. THIS WILL BE THE CASE IN WRN MA/CT. HOWEVER...AS ONE APPROACHES THE E COAST...EXPECT EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO SSTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THEREFORE...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE SUNSHINE. BREEZY NEAR SHORE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE NE BEHIND EXITING BACKDOOR FRONT. MASS FIELDS ALL SUGGEST RAPID SLACKENING. THIS WEAK PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND HIGHS TODAY BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 50S IN NORMAL RADIATIONAL SPOTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...DEEPER VALLEYS OF NW MA MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 40S. A GOOD...COOL...OPEN THE WINDOWS KIND OF NIGHT. SAT... ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRES. CLEAR SKIES AND SOME ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOMEWHAT EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL. IN THE MID 70S /NEAR SHORE/ TO LOW 80S INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN SUN AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK * DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION... 04/00Z GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGEST WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL NEXT THU OR FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FINALLY EJECTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ERODES THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY... NOT AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT BUT STILL SEASONABLE COOL ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. THEN SUNDAY AIRMASS GRADUAL WARMS BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA HUMIDITY REMAINS IN CHECK WITH DEW PTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MU50S. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND...70S AT THE SHORE IN RESPONSE TO COOLING AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING ANOMALOUS HEAT TO ADVECT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +18C TUE AND WED. THIS WARMTH ALOFT COMBINED WITH WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS 85 TO 90. HUMIDITY INCREASES TOO WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 60S TUE AND WED. THURSDAY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NEXT THU OR FRI. THUS NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS NOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z... VFR WITH SPOTS OF MVFR/IFR AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NE...AS WINDS SHIFT MAINLY NE AND INCREASE...EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO VFR. TODAY AND TONIGHT... VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI EARLY. SOME ISOLATED FOG MAINLY IN WRN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. SAT... MAINLY VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG. LIGHT FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY-TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WITH STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE NE...N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 4-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING/PLACEMENT CURRENTLY LOOK GOOD SO NO PROPOSED CHANGES. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SAT... HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO QUIET WX ACROSS THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY

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