Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 261842 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 242 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES... A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND ALONG WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YIELDING A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS BUT MILD AFTERNOONS. A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
230 PM UPDATE... STEADY RAIN SHIELD IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER NY STATE IS INITIATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND INTO SOUTHEAST NY...MOVING ESE. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE WILL BEGIN TO DRY UP SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO CT/RI AND ESPECIALLY OFF THE SOUTH COAST. T-STORMS OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS NORTHERLY LAND TRAJECTORY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY DRIZZLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SO TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S WILL THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT FROM THE COLD OF TODAY. STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL BUT A WELCOME DIFFERENCE AFTER THE 40S TODAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS DURING THE WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY OVERVIEW... STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA LIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. 00Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH LOW PRES MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST THU-FRI AS INFLUENCE FROM E CANADIAN VORTEX AND UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE SUPPRESSED SHORTWAVE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING SUN NIGHT OR MON AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN GFS. DETAILS... WED NIGHT... SFC RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS ACTIVATED. THU INTO FRI... LOW PRES MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL. WE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...WITH JUST A VERY LOW PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE CT VALLEY. COASTAL SEABREEZES LIKELY BOTH DAYS. SAT INTO SUN... HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY. MODERATING TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. MON... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF MOISTURE WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MAINTAINS RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS ARE WET. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 230 PM UPDATE ... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THRU 00Z ... MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MAIN SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN NOW OFF THE COAST. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST THRU 00Z. SO EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN MA. AFTER 00Z ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TREND FROM MVFR/IFR TO MVFR 00Z-03Z WITH MUCH OF THE REGION VFR BY 06Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. WED ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND SEABREEZES TRACK. VFR WITH LIGHT WEST WIND. HOWEVER AFTERNOOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THESE BOUNDARIES TRACK AS DEEP BLYR MAY MIX DOWN WEST WINDS 10-15 KT...PRECLUDING SEABREEZES FROM TRACKING TOO FAR INLAND. WED NIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. VFR...DRY AND LIGHT WINDS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DURATION OF SEABREEZE TOMORROW/WED. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 1030 AM UPDATE ... ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SPEED UP ARRIVAL OF SCA WINDS TO LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ========================================================================= SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT INCREASING SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AM NOT COMFORTABLE TAKING IT DOWN AT THIS POINT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FEET SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THU AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOPS. MAINLY E/NE WINDS FRI/SAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231- 232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.