Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 252141 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 441 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL STALL OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY... BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK APART AS THE SUN SETS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE THEY LINGER OVER THE WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH AS GENERAL W-NW UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER. ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF E NY STATE INTO S VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. EXPECT THESE TO DRY OUT AS THEY HEAD E AS DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS W MA. FOR TONIGHT...NOTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING E ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT WILL SHIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS WILL START OFF A BIT GUSTY...UP TO AROUND 25 KT EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. H85 TEMPS DO DROP SOME EARLY TONIGHT AS WELL...THEN H5 HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE WHICH WILL PUSH SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS IN. WITH THE WINDS KEEPING THE AIR STIRRED UP AND LINGERING CLOUDS INLAND...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE 30S...RUNNING 10-15 DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRES WILL TEND TO STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC/SE U.S. COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...KEEPING A GENERAL W WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS WELL. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES AND MAY BACK TO SW DURING FRI NIGHT DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR THIS SHIFTS TO THE E. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCKING COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CANADA...TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 50. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS FRI NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY * TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DRY DETAILS... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRINGING ANOTHER DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS TO OUR AREA...BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP. H925 TEMPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON 5C ON GFS AND 3-4C ON ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT JUST A HINT COOLER THAN PREV FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA FLATTENS OUT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND AS A RESULT THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS ARE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BROUGHT GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION IS EITHER EAST OF OUR AREA FOR MON TO TUE...OR STAYS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA MON TO TUE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF MEMBERS DID SHOW LOW PRESSURE MAKING A CLOSE PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER OUR AREA SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED...MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS SCENARIO SO THINKING THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED TO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS. WE CONTINUE TO BE CONFIDENT THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AND PROBABLY STAYS WITH US FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUE AND WED HIGH TEMPS MAY BE LIMITED TO UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED NIGHT. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH 20Z. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOW PROB OF 40 KT GUSTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF N AND W MA. TONIGHT...VFR. W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT EARLY...HIGHEST ALONG COAST...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...KEPT GALES GOING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. NOTING GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT AT THE ISLES OF SHOALS OFF THE NH COAST THAT MAY BRIEFLY SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE ANN. CONVERTED REMAINING WATERS OVER THE SMALL CRAFTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...SO MAY BE ABLE TO END HEADLINES TOWARD DAYBREAK THOUGH HIGHER SEAS MAY LINGER. FRIDAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. FRIDAY NIGHT...W WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD FOR PART OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SAT. SW TO W WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS REACH SCA CRITERIA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...WINDS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ250. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT/NMB NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...EVT/NMB MARINE...EVT/NMB

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