Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 301717 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 117 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 115 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FORECASTS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS STARTING TO POP IN CENTRAL NY/NJ. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT... THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. MONDAY... FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK * BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI DETAILS... ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK... RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN 60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK. MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND. RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S AND W OF REGION. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG. VFR MON. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS BELOW SCA. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...RLG/JWD MARINE...KJC/JWD

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