Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 231517 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY... BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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11 AM UPDATE... SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE NJ COAST. GOOD MIXING TO H85 ALSO IN PLACE THOUGH NOTING WINDS AOA GROUND LEVEL ALSO DIMINISH AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST AS WELL AS ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 15Z. TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS. NOTING READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. WINDS ALSO STARTING TO BACK TO W AS THEY DIMINISH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE DEWPTS TO LOWER JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOWERED THE RH/S TO BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT INLAND AND 20-30 PCT ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S REMAIN IN LINE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. HELD OFF ON THIS UNTIL NEAR SHORE WATERS SMALL CRAFT ENDED AT 11 AM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S. WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND */ DISCUSSION... LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN- WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID- LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. W/NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR- LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 11 AM UPDATE... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO ALLOWED SMALL CRAFTS TO EXPIRE. SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS /AROUND 6 FT AT BUOY 44018 E OF NANTUCKET/ SO EXTENDED A LITTLE BIT LONGER THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO W-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY. DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250- 254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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