-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON