Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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724 FXUS61 KBOX 280749 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 349 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure begins to move further east of the Gulf of Maine heading into Saturday morning, diminishing onshore breezes. A warm front lifts north Saturday along with a risk for showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably warm and dry for Sunday. Temperatures then warm up into the mid to upper 80s again early next week. Primary chance for precipitation next week falls on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Messages: * Few showers and fog this morning. Will have a dry afternoon for the most part with partial sunshine west and mostly cloudy skies east. * Slightly below normal temperatures this afternoon. * Isolated severe weather threat late this afternoon across western parts of MA and CT. Location of the warm front early this morning is southwest of us and it is anticipated to move northeast towards southern New England by sunrise. Front lifts with WAA showers the first-half of the morning. Front settles to the north in central New England with our area well inside of the warm sector. Anticipate winds from the south/southwest and milder temperatures. Used a blend of the high-res guidance, such as the HREF, CONSShort, and HRRR to derive todays max temperatures. Despite good amount of cloud cover, will warm into the 70s for most and the lower Connecticut River Valley closes in on 80F. There will be low stratus and patchy areas of fog/drizzle as higher dew points advect in from the south, nearing 70F. Areas that have the greatest chance for patchy fog will be the south coast and those across eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA. As temperatures increase late this morning will see improvements, but they are subtle. Today is not a washout, much of this afternoon is expected to be dry, with more breaks in the clouds across southwestern New England, which could ended up becoming a mixture of sun and clouds. While the further east you are located, more in the way of clouds and only a few breaks of sunshine. A cold/cool front approaches late today and brings a few more showers and thunderstorms post sunset. Bottom line, not expecting widespread severe storms this afternoon across southern New England. What we do anticipate isolated severe thunderstorms with primary hazard of damaging straight-lined winds. Which is highlighted by the Marginal Risk from SPC, expanded into far western MA and northern Connecticut, west of the CT River. Thus the area greatest risk is the Connecticut River Valley and areas to the west. Suspect the Hudson Valley region of New York to have the better chance for storms, as there will be better destabilization with clearing skies. Nevertheless, mean CAPE ~ 1,500 J/kg and shear of 30 knots across western MA and northern CT, based on the 00z run of the HREF. The lacking factor, best forcing doesn`t arrive until 00z/8pm or just after sunset. CAMs do show a line of storms firing off after 21z/5pm across eastern New York, but the overall theme is for the line to decay as it reaches western areas of southern New England. We will continue to monitor developments throughout the day but do want to take a moment to echo the importance of being weather aware and a thunderstorm doesn`t need to become severe to be deadly as lightning can occur without a storm reaching severe limits, also if you can hear thunder you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Cold front moves east overnight, showers and few rumbles of thunder are possible, though the severe threat has ended. Wind shifts from the southwest to northwest, bringing in a drier airmass and clearing skies. Tonight low temperatures settle in the upper 60s. As the front is slow to clear the coastal plain, fog redevelops overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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Key Messages: * Gorgeous conditions on tap for Sunday, plenty of sunshine, and seasonably warm temperatures. Fairly quiet weather for Sunday as the cold front shifts off shore and northwest flow ushers in a drier albeit warmer airmass. Surface high pressure begins to build into the northeast, which will remain in the area through Monday. Have subtle mid-level height increases as well, leading to a dry and mostly sunny afternoon. With the 925mb temperatures on either side of +20C, maximum temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s. Dew points are manageable in the upper 50s across the interior, while the coastal plain are in the lower and middle 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Summertime Warmth for most of the week * Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday Large scale zonal flow across the northeast will be in place for much of the week. A short wave embedded in the flow will move across the region on Tuesday. That will be the primary opportunity for precipitation for the week. Warm temperatures: 850mb temperatures will fluctuate between 15-18C for most of the week, and these values are roughly 2-5C above normal. That translates to warmer than normal temperatures with daily highs well into the 80s, with some lower 90s in the mix as well. Although this heat will be nowhere near what we experienced earlier this week. Currently Monday is showing the highest chance of exceeding 90F, with most inland areas (except the higher elevations) likely topping out in the lower 90s. Winds look light enough for a sea breeze to form along the immediate east and south coastal areas to temper the heat a bit. Temperatures aloft are higher on Tuesday, but more clouds and showers/t-storms should keep highs a few degrees cooler, though on the other hand, dewpoints will be highest this day (push 70F), so it will feel several degrees warmer because of that. Dewpoints drop for Wednesday and Thursday after a "cool" front moves through, but with sunny skies, we will remain warm. NBM probabilities of seeing 90F or higher range from 50-85% across interior lower elevations both days, so barring significant pattern change, I`d think our max temperature forecasts will trend slightly upward in the coming days. Luckily dewpoints will be on the lower side, so it won`t feel overly humid. Friday has a bit more uncertainty, some suggestions that heights aloft decrease a bit and along with that, temperatures also lower. Probability of seeing 90F+ on Friday decrease to 20-50% across the interior. Tuesday Thunderstorms: Global models are in general agreement with swinging a shortwave across the region, and generating surface CAPE over 1000 J/kg, with about 20% of the members having over 2000 J/kg of CAPE. That`s pretty decent. GFS has about 30kt of 0-6km shear as well. Just based on those quick looks, it would seem that there is a possibility of stronger t-storms Tuesday. 00z CSU Machine Learning guidance paints in about a 10% chance of severe weather Tuesday. Of course, the devil is going to be in all of the details, including timing of the shortwave, and with this being 4 days out, it`s far too early to decide on any specific details, but we will monitor trends in guidance in the coming days. Additionally, precipitable water values should be reaching over 2.0", and that suggests the potential for some local heavy rain as well. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12... Moderate Confidence. Generally VFR across the region, although MVFR ceilings will begin to develop across CT sometime in the 06-08z timeframe and spread northeast. Believe by 10-12z, those lower ceilings will have reached BOS. Could see some light showers develop closer to 12z. Today... Moderate Confidence. Expecting widespread MVFR to IFR conditions with spotty light showers. Much of the guidance suggests IFR ceiling and visibilities pretty much everywhere the entire day, but continue to believe that guidance is too pessimistic and conditions will improve to MVFR in the 17-19z timeframe. Could even be a few spots with VFR. Late in the day, generally after 22z, scattered TSRA are expected to move into far western New England. Have included a PROB30 at BDL and BAF for that potential. Quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to timing. Tonight... Moderate Confidence. Any TSRA should dissipate as they move eastward, and believe any threat of precipitation will basically come to an end 05-07z. A weak front will also be pushing through the region, and that will produce a wind shift to the W/NW and conditions IFR/MVFR begins to improve to VFR from west to east. Sunday... High Confidence. Early morning MVFR/IFR may linger cross the Cape and Islands through 13-15z, otherwise, VFR. Northwest wind 8 to 12 knots, winds aloft are weaker, could lead to a sea breeze for eastern MA terminals, ie, BOS. Cape Cod and Islands remain with a WSW wind 10 to 15 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR/IFR much of Saturday, but the afternoon may end up with far better conditions than currently in the TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Expect conditions to improve to VFR for mid-afternoon, although timing of any TSRA late in the day is still rather uncertain. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Wednesday: VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight... High Confidence. A warm front lifts across the waters this morning with increasing southerly winds, gusts remain below 20 knots and seas are 3 to 4 feet, thus no Small Craft Advisory will be needed. As the front lifts north this morning, higher humidity will lead to areas of marine stratus and fog, leading to patchy areas of reduced visibilities. Tonight into Sunday morning a cold front will push across the waters with hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms. The front slowly clear the eastern waters Sunday morning, but areas of marine fog could remain until the front completely clears the coast. Sunday... High Confidence. High pressure builds in for Sunday with northwest winds across the eastern waters and west/southwest winds across the southern waters. Cannot rule out a seabreeze, easterly wind, developing on Sunday for the eastern coast of Massachusetts. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Nash NEAR TERM...Dooley SHORT TERM...Dooley LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Dooley/Nash MARINE...Dooley