-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 041516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
ONE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING OFF CAPE COD WITH PATCHY
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN RI/CT. OKX AND DIX RADARS SHOW
SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN PA BUT MOST WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE COAST...THE REST STAYS SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE AND
TAUNTON.

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MASS AND
NORTHWEST CT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WOULD FORCE MOST OF THE PCPN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA.  THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS MORE EAST-WEST
ACROSS PA AND NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS SIGNALS THE
EVENTUAL STALLING OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

WE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS /HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
INITIIALLY/ AND SKY COVER /100 PERCENT ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE PIKE/.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...THOUGH STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT S OF NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH RES MODELS /HRRR...WRF AND RAP13/ AND AS WELL AS THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z GFS A BIT
FURTHER N THAN THE OTHER MODELS. USED A NON-GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST.

QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR N WILL THE MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING
SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL GO. MODELS STILL
SIGNALING A SHARP NORTH CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP AS IT MOVES E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS S COASTAL
AREAS. KEPT CAT POPS GOING ACROSS S RI/S COASTAL MA AND THE
ISLANDS...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS N CT/MOST OF RI INTO SE MA. DID
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TO AROUND THE MASS PIKE THEN SHOULD BE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP N OF THERE.

GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP MOVES E ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LOOKS LIKE TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO EXPECT TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...WILL
LIKELY SEE DYNAMIC COOLING LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS S
COASTAL AREAS.

EXPECT TOTAL QPF TONIGHT AND THU TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES CLOSE TO THE MASS PIKE UP TO 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES ACROSS THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING
IN...WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST SHOT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
FROM THIS PASSING SYSTEM...SO WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. KEPT A WATCH GOING ALONG THE S COAST FOR NOW AS THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW BUT
STILL ON THE FENCE ON THIS...MAY ALSO BE JUST BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA.

EXPECT STEADY PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THU...
THOUGH WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THU AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRES
WAVE MOVES BY AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. PRECIP SHOULD START
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE...THOUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS E RI/SE MA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NIGHT...PASSING S FRIDAY
*  MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
*  UNCERTAIN FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE
ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK THEY DIVERGE A BIT...WITH ECMWF ATTEMPTING
TO BRING A COASTAL LOW UP OVER THE BENCHMARK TUESDAY AND THE GFS
BRINGING IN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO TAKE CARE OF SOME OF THE
TIMING ERRORS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SNOW.  THEN FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC.  THIS
WILL KEEP CHILLY TEMPERATURES...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...
IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE PUSHES LOW PRESSURE THROUGH QUEBEC...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THIS
POINT...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED
SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH RADICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE TIME FRAME...THIS IS NOT
COMPLETELY UNUSUAL...SO WILL TAKE EITHER MODEL WITH A GRAIN OF SALT
AT THIS TIME.  REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN WESTERN MASS.
LINGERING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...N OF MASS PIKE...MAINLY VFR CIGS THOUGH MAY LOWER TO
MVFR ALONG THE PIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF THE MASS PIKE...
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-LIFR ACROSS N
CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 05Z.

THURSDAY...N OF THE MASS PIKE...VFR. S OF THE PIKE...GENERALLY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/SN WITH LOCAL LIFR ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WILL START TO SEE IMPROVING CIGS
BUT IFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN -SN DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL DIMINISH AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS OR POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER S.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE DROPPED ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LOOK TO LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEY THEN
INCREASE BUT ONLY MODESTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR A PORTION OF THIS
TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT