Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 132009 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 409 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Offshore high pressure moves farther east tonight. A weak low off the Carolina coast brings increasing moisture to our area, along with the potential for scattered showers, during late tonight and Saturday. Warm and humid conditions are expected Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. This setup will also result in scattered showers at times, but a washout is not expected. This front moves offshore late Sunday night or early Monday morning, followed by drier, less humid and cooler weather next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure moves further east and offshore tonight. A cold front extending from Hudson Bay southwestward thru the Great Lakes Region will be moving eastward overnight but will still be north of New England for 12Z Sat. Will see a notable increase in moisture overnight with an onshore/ESE flow, and skies are expected to become mostly cloudy. NAM and GFS are both picking up on the open wave off the Carolina Coast, and have it moving somewhat northward- a surface trof extending from the low should be enough to produce some showers prior to daybreak. Will go dry to start, then chance pops for later tonight. Some patchy fog developing. Since the early evening hours may stay mostly clear and be accompanied by light/near calm winds, we may see a quick drop in temps this evening, recovering later tonight as clouds increase. Late afternoon dew points were mainly in the 40 to 50 degree range. Thinking overnight lows range from the mid 40s to low 50s for much of the area, except mid 50s along the shoreline.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Tonight and Saturday... As the ridge moves further offshore, the SW wind flow becomes established as a cold front slowly works E out of the Great Lakes. The low level moisture will increase as well milder air moving in. Some question as to whether spotty light precip may start to break out after midnight, as models showing some solution spread in how far E that moisture may push in overnight. Kept slight chance POPs going for tonight. May also see patchy fog develop overnight. Low temps will be mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s, maybe a bit milder along the S coast. Better lift and moisture feed will work in during Saturday as the high sits S of Nova Scotia and the approaching cold front remains well W of the region. With the onshore flow, should see scattered showers develop during the mid day and afternoon hours mainly near and S of the Mass Pike. It will be mild though, with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Highlights... * Much warmer than normal and humid Sunday * Scattered showers Sunday morning, then again Sunday night * Dry weather much of next week but chilly Monday night/Tuesday A broad mid level trough is expected to move across southern New England early next week, followed by a slowly building ridge the rest of next week. Expecting near to slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday, followed by above normal temperatures through the end of the work week. Our dry weather pattern should continue most of next week. The only real chance we have for precipitation will be with the passage of a cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered showers could arrive west of the Worcester hills during the afternoon, but are more likely Sunday evening. Not a lot of dynamics to work with, so expecting showers to diminish in coverage as they move east. The only other concern in this period will be the potential for strong gusty winds Sunday and Sunday night as this cold front approaches, then moves through our region. With most trees still having leaves on them, gusts could be strong enough to result in isolated wind damage. Greatest risk would be across MA, which will be closer to the core of a low level jet.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence thru 00Z this evening, then moderate confidence. Tonight...CIGS becoming MVFR, with patchy MVFR vsbys in fog after midnight. Localized IFR conditions in stratus/fog late. Saturday...MVFR CIGS. Scattered showers expected. Saturday night...MVFR with IFR possible. Scattered showers and patchy fog. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF thru 00Z, then moderate confidence. VFR thru 00Z, then CIGS becoming MVFR 00-02Z. Chance for showers late tonight and during Sat. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF thru 00Z, then moderate confidence. VFR thru 00Z, then CIGS becoming MVFR 00-02Z. Chance for showers late tonight and during Sat. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...High confidence, except moderate confidence early Sunday morning and Sunday night. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible in the morning. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Patchy FG. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/... Tonight and Saturday...Seas of 4 to 5 ft will linger across the waters S of RI thru tonight and much of Saturday. Seas will build somewhat across the southern coastal waters during Saturday. SCA headlines have been extended thru Saturday afternoon for this area. There is a chance SCA headlines may need to be expanded for Sat within RI/BI Sounds and the waters south of Nantucket. Elsewhere, winds/seas are expected to be below SCA thresholds. Also during Saturday, visibility may lower in patchy fog and scattered showers. Saturday night...Poor vsbys in areas of showers/drizzle and fog. SCA headlines for seas may be needed for the southern outer coastal waters, and the outer coastal waters east of Cape Cod. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...High confidence, except some uncertainty how strong southwest winds become Sun afternoon and evening. Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Min temperatures Saturday night could be rather close to the current record maximum low temperatures. October 15 Record maximum low temperatures Boston 64/1954 Worcester 64/1954 Hartford 63/2014 Providence 63/2014 .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/NMB NEAR TERM...NMB SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/NMB MARINE...Belk/NMB

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