Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281048 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 648 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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700 AM UPDATE... A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 50F...IN FACT SPRINGFIELD FELL TO 49F! ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR LEADING TO A GREAT DAY. ASIDE FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY COMFORTABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. SATURDAY... HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND * ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK * LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT OVERVIEW... 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND- HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN. DAILIES... SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...DUNTEN

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