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000
FXUS61 KBOX 231425
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1025 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly sunny and pleasant today with highs in the 70s to lower
80s. Cooler, damp conditions are forecast for Monday and
Tuesday. High pressure in control will bring dry and pleasant
weather Wednesday and probably into much of Thursday. Another
low pressure system will likely bring showers/isolated
thunderstorms to the region Thursday night and/or Friday,
perhaps lingering into Saturday. Temperatures will be below
normal for most if not all of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

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No major changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Northern
edge of the clouds associated with a low pressure were
primarily located along the south coast of MA and RI. More
scattered clouds farther north. Watching next batch of clouds
across NY state and PA. Expecting a period of sunshine across
much of southern New England until those clouds arrive later
today.

Thinking forecast temperatures look pretty good given the steady
onshore flow.

Previous Discussion...

Northeast winds were gusting to between 20 and 30 mph along the
eastern MA coast behind a wave of low pressure early this
morning. These winds should diminish over the next couple hours,
but some gusts to between 15 and 20 mph will be possible
through early afternoon. Other than a sprinkle/light shower
scraping Nantucket over the next hour or two, dry weather will
prevail today. Skies already becoming partly sunny north of the
MA Pike early this morning and expect this trend to continue
across the rest of the region as drier air works in from the
north.

Comfortable overall in comparison to days past with highs in the
70s to lower 80s, with the coolest readings along the eastern MA
coast. Dewpoints dropping overnight and will continue to do so
with the N/E winds during the day, some places falling into the
upper 40s with daytime mixing.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
tonight through tuesday night...

A prolonged period of cool, damp weather. Potent open wave H5 trough
sweeps through the region Monday night into Tuesday. In advance, an
interior surface low emerges Sunday night over the E Great Lakes,
transferring energy towards the coast and offshore across regions
of better baroclinicity Monday. Per an isallobaric response, a wedge
of high pressure settles in- between brought about by stout NE flow.
More stable, cooler airmass via a cold air damming setup, amplified
as the interior surface low weakens across the W foothills of the
Appalachians Monday night and the low offshore deepens.
Reminiscent of Winter, atypical as is the amplified trough
pattern for mid-Summer.

An over-running setup. The kinked frontal pattern across the region
with cooler, more stable air, will keep better thunderstorm chances
well S/W throughout the forecast, though can`t rule out some rumbles
of thunder over S/W portions of New England with possible elevated
instability. Nothing strong to severe. Main concern is with torrential
rainfall. Period of heavy rain given available forcing upon deepest,
most pronounced column moisture is forecast Monday with collocation
of sub-tropical moisture influx undergoing lift along the kinked
frontal boundary beneath some weaker ascent associated with lead
shortwave energy. Will need to watch closely upon low-level convergent
winds to the front. The rest of the timeframe looks to be cool and
damp, especially Monday night into Tuesday as the mid-level dynamics
sweep the region with stronger mid- level forcing acting upon remnant,
available moisture, though more continental rather than sub-tropical.
Light showery weather is to be expected along with an abundance of
low clouds, perhaps some patchy fog.

Clearing out Tuesday night in wake of the H5 trough. Subsidence
prevailing as cooler, drier air settles S brought in by N flow
becoming light with increasing high pressure up to around 1025.

As model solutions vary, especially with respect to the magnitude
of low level convergent forcing along the frontal profile from the
NE with the GEFS suggesting +3-4 standard deviation above normal
and both the EC/NAM hinting at least a 30 mph inflow, will keep it
conservative and keep close to the latest SREF output. Upstream
convective elements transitioning along the quasi-stationary boundary
S at the start of the forecast period late Sunday into Sunday night,
indications of mesoscale convective systems across PA and NY, but
then it would appear the pattern across the NE CONUS becomes more
synoptic with energy pinwheeling.

Chance to likely PoPs, highest Monday. Will hint at the chance of
thunder towards SW CT Monday. No special wording just yet on heavy
rain given the uncertainty and low confidence spatially as to where
heavy rain will occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Dry and pleasant Wed and probably into much of Thu afternoon
* Unsettled/wet weather likely returns by Thu night and/or Fri
* Temps will remain below normal through the end of the week

Details...

Wednesday into Thursday afternoon...

High pressure will build across the region Wed and slide east of our
area by Thu. The result will be dry weather Wed and probably into
most of Thu afternoon. Temperatures should rebound from early in
the week, but still average a bit below normal for late July. Highs
should mainly be in the middle 70s to lower 80s Wed and Thu afternoons
with comfortable humidity.

Thursday night through Saturday...

A rather impressive shortwave for late July will dive southeastward
from the Great Lakes and carve out another Northeast trough. The
approaching shortwave will likely bring a period of showers and
perhaps isolated thunderstorms to the region. Specific timing is
uncertain with most guidance currently focused on Thu night/Fri,
but it is possible some activity lingers into Sat. Temps should
remain below normal with highs mainly in the 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

1025 AM update...

Today...High confidence in VFR most of the region. Brief MVFR
through about 16Z towards the Cape and islands. Northeast wind
gusts of 20 knots along the eastern MA coast diminish this
afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence. CIGs lowering SW to NE towards MVFR-
IFR as -RA begins to spread across the region. Continued E flow
with gusts up to 25 kts along the S-coast forecast.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR CIGs with -RA. Impacts to the AM push possible with RA/+RA.
Potential VSBY restrictions. Continued breezy NE flow with gusts up
to 25 kts.

Monday Night into Tuesday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR CIGs linger with -SHRA/DZ. Lower conditions possible Monday
night with LIFR. NE winds continue with gusts up to 25 kts possible
especially across E MA.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Improving towards VFR. Winds backing N remaining breezy.

KBOS Terminal...VFR. NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots diminish
this morning, but gusts to between 15 and 20 knots will be
possible into early afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...VFR. Flow becoming E as CIGs become SCT-BKN. -RA
will move into the terminal roughly around midnight into early
Monday morning.

Outlook /Wednesday through Thursday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions into Thursday afternoon. Potential for
deteriorating cigs/vsbys Thursday night but timing of showers,
low clouds, and fog patches are uncertain at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

1025 AM update...

Today...

Northeast winds gusting to between 20 and 30 knots early this
morning across our eastern waters. However, this will be short-
lived and most locations should see wind gust drop below 25 kt
by late morning. Therefore, have opted not to issue a Small
Craft Advisory.

Tonight...

Continued E flow with gusts up around 20 kts, as high as 25 kts
along the S-coast forecast. Seas no greater than 4 feet.

Monday...

Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers. Could be some
visibility restrictions out on the waters. Continued breezy NE flow
with gusts up to 25 kts. Seas building to 5 feet on the S/SE outer
waters.

Monday Night into Tuesday...

MVFR-IFR CIGs linger with -SHRA/DZ. Lower conditions possible Monday
night with LIFR. NE winds continue with gusts up to 25 kts possible
especially across E MA. Seas up to 5 feet on the E outer waters.

Tuesday Night...

Improving towards VFR. Winds backing N remaining breezy. Seas
diminishing below 5 feet.

Outlook /Wednesday through Thursday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas should remain below small craft thresholds Wed
into Thu morning with high pressure in control. As the high
pressure system moves east of the waters, south to southwest
winds may gust to between 20 and 25 knots by Thu afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Frank/Sipprell