-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 122005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES
INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY INTO VT WHERE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT.
MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SUNDAY...
SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS N MA AND S
NH. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHOWERS BUT WE FOLLOWED
NAM/GFS SOLUTION WHICH KEEP BULK OF RAIN TO THE NORTH. MOST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE PTSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED.

SW LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING DEPTH IS SHALLOW BUT MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. COOLEST TEMPS NEAR THE S COAST WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR LEADING TO A MILD NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
* STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT TUES/WED
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
  WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MID-WEEK BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. IN FACT GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO STALL
THE FRONT OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR. FINALLY BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER BOTH
COASTLINES. THIS WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CONUS AND
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUES/WED. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPEARS
TO RAPIDLY FLATTEN...LEAVING THE FRONT OVER THE WRN ATLC FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST.  THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER
THE 12Z EC SHOWED A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
AND MOVE WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT OTHER GUIDANCE
BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER...ESP SINCE THE 00Z EC KEEPS THAT
POTENTIAL COAST LOW MORE OFFSHORE. IN FACT THERE WAS ONLY 1 MEMBER
OF THE GEFS THAT SUPPORTED THE 12Z EC WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GEFS/GFS/CMC/UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALL BE
DETERMINED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER/NEAR NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO WITHIN 10F
OF NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST TOWARDS
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A 2:1 RATIO OF EC:GFS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ONLY
CAVEAT IS THE GUSTY WINDS...SO BELIEVE BEST AREA WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.

AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...EXCELLENT
WAA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AREA WILL MIX
TO ABOUT 900 MB AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 14-16C...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S ON MONDAY.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPER ADIABATIC AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BREAKS OUT THEN TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 80F ON MONDAY...ESP
NORTH OF THE PIKE. HOWEVER IF YOU ARE ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTLINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S. 925 MB LLJ WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN ANOMALOUS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS LLJ WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 40-50KTS AND WITH EXCELLENT
MIXING PLACE WE COULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH...AND POSSIBLY
FLIRT WITH WIND ADV CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....

GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CLUSTER MORE TOGETHER ON THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATEST 00Z
MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. BUT AS SOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL. THIS PRECIP MAY CAUSE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND IT MAY ALSO HELP ELEVATED THE
RIVER LEVELS IF EVERYTHING LINES UP. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EXCELLENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND BEING TAPPED IN WITH THE GULF STREAM SEE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR...ESP WHEN PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NOT ONLY AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT WILL ALSO
CREATE VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER
GUSTS COULD OCCUR AS 925MB WINDS SPEEDS STRENGTHEN TO 60-80KTS.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A POSSIBLE WIND ADV IF WE MIX ALL THE WAY TO
925MB. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE JUST
SHY...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

VERY STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY
WED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PERHAPS SPEEDS AROUND 20MPH AS 925 MB JET IS AROUND
30-40KTS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT DROP VERY
QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO RUSH INTO THE REGION. IF ANY
PRECIP LINGERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WE COULD HAVE SOME P-TYPE
ISSUES ESP ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

LASTLY WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND INTO NARRAGANSETT BAY. TIDES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE PEAKING NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WE WOULD NEED CLOSE TO A 2FT SURGE INTO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND A 5
FT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. YET THE BIGGEST CONCERN ACROSS THE
SOUTH COASTLINE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL WAVE ACTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

AS ONE CAN SEE THERE IS A LOT OF HAZARDS THAT THIS STORM CAN
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...ESP SINCE THIS STORM IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE A POTENT SPRING STORM WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY USHER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH
JUST REACHING 50F. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FRONT FOR ANY
POTENTIAL WAVES THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WIN OUT...OVERALL HAVE
A LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTH COAST SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LOW PROB OF A FEW
SHOWERS NORTH OF ROUTE 2. BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUSTY SW WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE S
COAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LLWS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WE LEFT A SEABREEZE OUT OF
THE TAF AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP IT OFFSHORE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST EARLY MON SHOULD
IMPROVE...OTHERWISE VFR. S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP 25-35 KTS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM W-E DURING TUE IN RAIN
SHOWERS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH AREAS OF IFR. PRECIP MAY
MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS S NH/W MA BEFORE ENDING
LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E DURING WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA FOR SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE SEAS
HOVERING AROUND 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SW FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WATERS. HOWEVER...STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS AND BEST
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AND
ESPECIALLY BOS HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO
MID-MORNING ON MONDAY. DURING THE DAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO GUST
UP TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAY. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE
FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE AND MAY START
RELAXING LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF GALES
TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NERFC FORECASTS BRING LOWER CT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE
HADDAM INTO MINOR FLOOD STARTING DURING SUNDAY...BASED ON WATER
BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CT BASIN. WE ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE CT RIVER AT HARTFORD BUT HELD OFF AT MIDDLE
HADDAM WHICH IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...