Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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801 FXUS61 KBOX 271807 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 207 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the Gulf of Maine through Friday, maintaining mostly cloudy conditions, cooler temperatures and modest onshore breezes. A warm front tries to lift northward Saturday with a risk for showers and thunderstorms, along with warmer and more humid weather for the southern half of Southern New England. Seasonably warm and dry for Sunday. Temperatures then warm up into the mid to upper 80s again early next week, along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Cool and cloudy day, breaks of sunshine possible in eastern areas of southern New England. A quiet and cool start across southern New England this morning with cloudy skies. A similar set up today as it was on Thursday with an area of high pressure, 1025mb, across the Gulf of Maine, giving the region a northeast wind. Clouds linger, with breaks in the coverage across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Despite cloud cover, the day is a dry one. Temperature-wise, on shore winds keep us below normal for late June. Highs range from the upper 60s and lower 70s, west of Worcester County and Rhode Island are a few degrees warmer in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Spot showers overnight and cool conditions. * Wide range of temperatures Saturday afternoon, location dependent, followed by afternoon and evening thunderstorms with an associated cold front. Tonight: Warm front is off to the west of southern New England, with warm air advection ahead of the front, leading to pop-up showers. Do think these showers will arrive during the predawn hours of Saturday and linger into early Saturday morning. Otherwise, an overcast night with nighttime low temperatures from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday and Saturday Night: The aforementioned warm front lifts and showers wind down late morning across eastern Massachusetts. Rest of the day should feature more dry periods than wet, but given the WAA it is not out of the question for isolated showers. Temperatures for the afternoon will be challenging, due to the exact placement of the warm front, there is potential for temperatures to bust, depending on how far north the warm front reaches. Current thinking, the front becomes hung up near the Route 2 corridor of northern Massachusetts. Areas north of the front are cooler in the 60s, though it will be far warmer across southwest Connecticut in the lower to middle 80s with breaks of sunshine. It is the inbetween, where we expect highs in the lower 70s and think the lower Connecticut River Valley has potential to reach 80F. Derived temperatures based on higher-res guidance HREF and CONSShort. A cold front moves through late afternoon with thunderstorms, those with outdoor plans will want to remain weather aware. Think best chance for strong to severe storms are southwest of New England, across the lower Hudson Valley and areas southwest of there. Cold front moves quickly through, clearing the coast before sunrise on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Drying out Sunday through early Tuesday, a cold front on Tuesday will bring next round of rain and thunderstorms. Drying conditions return for midweek. * A warming trend Sunday through most of next week, though it will not be as hot as this past week. Quasi-zonal flow Sunday and Monday, an approaching mid-level trough and surface cold front moves across the region late Tuesday before clearing the coast early Wednesday morning. A mid-level closed low in Canada leads to cyclonic flow Thursday with a few shortwaves embedded. Precipitation-wise, Sunday is trending drier with northwest flow in the wake of the departing cold front and weak high pressure building in from the west. This continues dry conditions on Monday as well. As for Tuesday, much of the day is looking dry, but a cold front will bring the next round of rain and thunderstorms by the afternoon and exits the coast by Wednesday morning. Will dry out Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, but Thursday will have to watch for pop-up showers with a shortwave passage. Finally, a warming trend begins Sunday with highs returning to the low 80s, but quickly warms into the upper 80s and low 90s both on Monday and Tuesday. Post cold front, temperatures are knocked down to the low and middle 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Dew points are manageable most days in the 60s, while Tuesday these climb to the lower 70s ahead of the approaching cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Some spots could go down to MVFR before 12z, but most are expected to go down by then due to stratus and -SHRA with BR. Winds S to SE from 3-10 kts. Saturday...Moderate Confidence. MVFR/IFR. -SHRA possible by 12z for most terminals. Lingering vsby reductions possible through the morning. Uncertainty in terms of timing of improvements back to MVFR and possibly VFR, but thinking towards the afternoon and evening hours. S to SE winds from 5 to 13 kts. Saturday Night...High Confidence in trends. VFR towards the west with primarily MVFR/IFR east of Hartford. Improvements towards Sunday morning with a cold frontal passage clearing out southern New England. Winds S, shifting W as the front passes through. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Thinking improvement from IFR possible in the afternoon hours amidst breaks of sun among the clouds, but timing not completely certain at this time. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in timing for improvements in ceilings tomorrow afternoon. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday through Monday: VFR. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday Night: Northeast to east wind range from 15 to 25 knots, with waves 3-5 ft through tonight. The strongest winds and highest seas over the southern outer waters, a SCA continues through today on the southern outer waters, though conditions are somewhat borderline. Mainly dry weather, although could see some passing showers tonight. Late tonight wind shifts from the southeast to south with speeds 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dooley NEAR TERM...Dooley SHORT TERM...Dooley LONG TERM...Dooley AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin/FT MARINE...Dooley