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000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

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400 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THE TEMPS HAVE FELT COOLER. A FEW PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RELAX AS WELL.

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

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TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

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1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX NEAR
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&&

.MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.
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&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL