-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 081204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS MORE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
7 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING OFF CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS OFFSHORE STORM
DEPARTS. MEANWHILE A SHIELD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD MOTION...AND TEMPS BASED ON 7 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY... OCEAN STORM CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL
ALTER TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
PLAIN TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S WHILE THE NORTHWEST CORNERS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS MONTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO SQUEAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SEEMS THE
AREA WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. YET
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS CROSS SECTION DO NOT SHOW
DEEP SATURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AS WELL YET WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED SO WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET.


SUNDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE. DRY AIR BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE
FILTERS IN ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER YET GUSTY WINDS AS MIXING
REACHES NEAR 850MB . TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK BELOW AVERAGE...IN
THE 30S AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -8 TO -10C. INTERESTING
NOTE...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO OUTPUT SOME QPF BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. PERHAPS MODELS
ARE INDICATING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
OCCURRENCE AND LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUATION OF SEPERATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET
STREAMS IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  MIDWEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ARCTIC
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND PHASES WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...THEN ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.  THE FLOW THEN ATTEMPTS TO RETURN TO ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND DISTURBANCE IN THAT FLOW CROSSING CANADA.
OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES TRACK OF POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM AND PUSHES
THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH. GGEM IS SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
AND PCPN FORECASTS BUT SLOWER WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE.  ECMWF HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE BUT REMAINS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND THE
ONE STILL SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT FOR OUR AREA.  WE WILL
USED A BLEND OF DATA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR MILDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
ON 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE RESULTING OVERRUNNING OF THE
AIRMASS WILL CREATE LIFT AND CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MIDDLE TO LATE NIGHT...BUT SOME SHOULD SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA BY MORNING. DRY SURFACE AIR MAY INTERCEPT/EVAPORATE SOME OF
THIS PCPN. WILL GO WITH LOW-END CHANCE POPS FAVORING NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA.  THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWING ACROSS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE
BEST SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR AT MOST LOW-END CHANCE POPS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...

PROJECTED MIDWEEK STORM CONTINUES TO CAPTURE ATTENTION AND
UNCERTAINTY. GFS/GGEM OPERATIONAL MODELS SHIFTED THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH WITH BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH.
ECMWF MAINTAINS A PCPN EVENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WITH A TRACK
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. THIS IS LIKELY NOT THE LAST SHIFT IN
TRACK...WITH SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FORECAST.

WHY IS IT SHIFTING? THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS
STORM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. LIMITED
MEASUREMENTS CAN LEAD TO LARGER RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES IN THE INITIAL
DATA FED TO THE COMPUTERS...WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN THE RESULTS
THE COMPUTERS OUTPUT. IT WILL NOT REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE USA
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY
THE NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER BALLOON NETWORK.

WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE EVERYWHERE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS NOT OFFERED AS DOWNPLAYING THE POTENTIAL
EVENT...BUT RATHER AS A RECOGNITION OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US 5.5 TO 6 DAYS IN THE
FUTURE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND WINTER STORM TRACK CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGEST IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION IT MAY START AS RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW...AND REMAIN SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE EVENT.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER
DAY.  UPPER FLOW TRENDS BACK TO ZONAL...SO AFTER A BRIEF CHILL DOWN
BEHIND THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
SEASONABLE COOL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS ARE BREAKING...AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. MORE CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT THESE HAVE BASES AT 9 THOUSAND TO 10 THOUSAND FEET AGL.
VFR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANY LEFT OVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF AREA. JUST A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SWELL FROM PASSING OCEAN STORM WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...FIRST THE S COASTAL WATERS AND THEN LATER ACROSS THE E
COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP AND OVER 5FT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. ANY LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD END.

MONDAY...WINDS REBOUND TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL RACE EAST
WEDNESDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS
ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A RANGE OF EFFECTS
ON THE WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST GALES.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO AT
LEAST 5-6 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN