Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 191752 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 152 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 2 PM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK. EVIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE-LOOKING CUMULUS. SEA-BREEZES COMING ASHORE WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WIND PER OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER- 70S. COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINES WITH SEA-BREEZES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. WED... ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF 12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK * UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. DETAILS... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK STATE. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 18Z UPDATE... VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA- BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR- IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL MARINE...BELK/DOODY

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