Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 142239 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 640 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWS NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN LIKELY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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640 PM UPDATE... JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WIND...AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO MAINLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE. OPTED TO USE THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY INTO NORTHWESTERN MA AND INTO HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...ANOTHER CHILLY START BUT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER IN PLACES. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MORE HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND RAIN EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED THROUGH SAT * FROST POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S * MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY NEXT SUN DETAILS... TUESDAY... RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS A RESULT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE EXITED THE INTERIOR BY NOON AND COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO THE MORNING...EXPECT A COOL DAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT TEMPS MIGHT FALL BELOW 60 WHILE ITS RAINING. THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW ONE HALF INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDINESS AFFECT CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED INTO WED NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE ON BOTH LATE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT LIGHT SHOWER THURSDAY...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA...WHERE FROST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT...VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT. MONDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS INTERIOR AND SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK OF PATCHY MVFR FOG INLAND. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A TOUCH OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO TUE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE INTO WED BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST EARLY TUE...TO NORTH NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THU. MARGINAL SCA SEAS AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THU INTO FRI ACROSS SOME OF THE OUTER-WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ002-003-008. NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...RLG/FRANK MARINE...RLG/FRANK

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