Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 230601 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 201 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring beautiful late summer weather through Tuesday with low humidity. Warmer and more humid weather is expected Wednesday through Friday along with a low risk of showers and thunderstorms Thu night into Friday. Dry and less humid weather may return next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure remains in control of our weather, although it will gradually move offshore through the Delmarva Peninsula. The core of a cooler pool of air aloft will miss our region to the northeast. However, it will be close enough to lower the starting point for our warm up. With plenty of sunshine, expecting temperatures to be similar to slightly higher than Monday. Weak seabreezes may develop, but not a lot of confidence owing to persistent north to northwest winds toward the top of the boundary layer. Much more comfortable humidity levels continue. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather continues. Expecting winds to be either southwest or south during this time. This should result in a warming trend during this time. Low confidence in some patchy fog late tonight. Most likely area where fog might develop would be across portions of western MA, particularly in the CT River valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Warmer and more humid thru Fri * Dry much of this week except a risk of T-storms Thu ngt/Fri * Dry and less humid weather may return next weekend Overview and model preferences... Strong signal for gradual re-admittance of the subtropical ridge into the region through the latter half of the week. Therefore, after this roughly 48 hr taste of fall, a return to much more summer-like and above normal temperatures are expected to cap off the week. This regained influence is thanks to digging trof across the W CONUS, which will eventually eject weak energy E in the form of a shortwave arrival for Fri. Following this weak passage, there is not enough of a significant shift in the pattern, such that ridging will once again regain control by the weekend. Given there continues to be very good agreement on these overall themes, a consensus blend of latest operational guidance and persistence will be used for this update. Details... Thu... A gradual warming trend, with H85 temps reaching +15C by Thu. This suggests mid-upper 80s by Thu. Dwpts will be on the rebound as well, increasing from the low 50s to near 60 by Thu afternoon. Breezy SW winds on Thu as high pres center moves E of the region. Fri... Shortwave will eject to the E across the NE on Fri. While the bulk of it/s associated dynamics and moisture will actual shift to the N as the wave opens in response to the ridging influence. Still with increasing dwpts and slight dip in upper lvl temps do note about 500-1000j/kg of MU CAPE to work with as the attendant front arrives by the afternoon. PWATS and lapse rates are both quite modest, the former around 1.75 inches and the latter between 30-40 kt unidirectional in the 0-6km layer. Therefore, although TS is possible, they look to be relatively modest at this point in time. Will continue to monitor the risk as we approach. Otherwise, with enough sunshine temps will make a run toward 90F in some spots. Sat and Sun... Temperatures drop off a bit closer to normal, but with H85 temps between +12C and +15C, note that highs in the 80s are still likely either day. However, a weak backdoor front may bring in some air off the waters off the Gulf of Maine which may limit temps particularly for E MA. Mon... Assuming high pres remains a strong as progged (mainly near 1025 hPa) this could be enough to hold off a second front moving in from Canada, until later next work week, suggesting a continuation of drier weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday/... High confidence for mainly VFR conditions through Wednesday. Low risk for some patchy late night/early morning radiation fog at the typical fog-prone locations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low confidence seabreeze may develop this afternoon. It will need to be watched closely. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... High confidence in a stretch of mainly dry VFR weather. Sea breezes most likely mid-late week. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday/... Through daybreak...High confidence. Will permit the Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Cape Cod and Nantucket to expire. Latest observations continue to indicate seas diminishing. Winds have long since subsided to less than 25 kt. Today through Wednesday...High confidence in tranquil boating weather as a high pressure moves offshore from the Delmarva Peninsula. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...High confidence. Thu and Fri... Afternoon S-SW wind gusts may reach near 25 kt close to shore, particularly around the Cape/Islands. Small craft advisories may be needed. Although swells will build out of the S-SW anything above 5 ft should remain well outside of the New England coastal waters. Sat... A return to mainly quiet boating weather as high pres once again settles across the waters. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Doody AVIATION...Belk/Doody MARINE...Belk/Doody

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