Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 301057 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING SPRINKLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES. VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY... POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BEST SHOT OF THAT IS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY * STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...FRANK/RLG

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