Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 231945 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 345 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK... BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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4 PM UPDATE... LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE WILL BE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S. WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE WILL WASHOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. TONIGHT... PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS FROM TRULY RADIATING OUT. HOWEVER IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES THEN SURFACE TEMPS COULD DROP IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. CONTINUED A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADV. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ACROSS RI AND SE MASS...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS UP AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT... GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL DIE DOWN DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. THIS MAY DROP TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S. TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. A STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ROUTE 2...MA/NH BORDER. IN FACT...A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERVIEW... FAST W-NW UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. NOTING BROAD H5 VORTEX REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO LABRADOR WHICH MAY CYCLONICALLY SPIN THERE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... REINFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO LOWERED H5 HEIGHTS. WITH THIS W-NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...A FRONT WILL WORK OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY THEN MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE FAST FLOW ALOFT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WITH TIMING ISSUES AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DETAILS... SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS CLOUDS INCREASE. LEADING EDGE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS NW MA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT... THOUGH. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT IT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS S DURING MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE FRONT SLOWS MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WILL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES MOVE ALONG IT. EXPECT A STEADIER RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY AND MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE DURING TUESDAY FROM N-S. AT THIS POINT...QPF AMOUNTS WILL RUN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK S DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPS TUE WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL READINGS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE ENDING WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER THAT. FAST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE SE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE EASTWARD TRACK OF LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WED NIGHT. TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR FOR THU INTO FRI. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY FOR A PART OF IT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A BIT LATER TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVAL ON THU AND CONTINUING INTO FRI...BUT ARE LEANING TOWARD THEIR OWN OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TIMING SO RATHER LOW CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH LINGERING IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. NORTH TO NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KTS. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NW TERMINALS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 21-22Z. ANOTHER SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PUSH S ACROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY IN RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE COAST LATE MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM N-S TUE NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SCA ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS FOR GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS MON AFTERNOON. MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS EARLY MON NIGHT...THEN WILL VEER AROUND TO N-NE AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MIDDAY TUE. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TUE. SEAS MAY REACH AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LIGHT N WINDS. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT EARLY WED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THIS AFTERNOON... DESPITE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AVERAGING 30 TO 40 PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WIND GUSTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MA AND RI UNTIL THIS EVENING. TOMORROW...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE RH VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. ONLY CAVEAT IS THE WIND GUSTS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TOMORROW BUT DEPENDING ON HOW WELL WE MIX OUT...COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH. LOCAL FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW...SO AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN IS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 0.5 TO AROUND 0.75 INCH OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-014-017- 018. RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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