Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 200801 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 301 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAS RESULTED IN PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING INTO W NEW ENG EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SCT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN. COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND. FRIDAY... MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * ANOMALOUS COLD FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND * MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY * RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IN SOME CASES...LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES START GETTING INTO THE MODELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SO MUCH COLD WEATHER TO THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A BRIEF...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THERE. THIS WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEYOND THIS...THE MODELS START LOSING THEIR AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LIKELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND. THE GFS HAS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING ONE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR ANOTHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GIVEN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AGREES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PREFER TO GO WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT. BUT EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS WARMER MOIST AIR TRAVELS IN ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION WILL START OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY ON ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY. PWATS ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FINALLY...A 50 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION IF THEY ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE ARE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND THE RAIN WILL HELP BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE SO MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT WINDS AT SOME POINT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. TUESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LINGERING RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL START TO SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CAPE/ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS ALONG WITH SW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. TODAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON CAPE/ISLANDS AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS. SW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. TONIGHT...VFR CIGS NW...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS. FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...KJC/DOODY MARINE...KJC/DOODY

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