Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 262354 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED! - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION */ OVERVIEW... HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY! KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR- 88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE. WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER OF SNOW ANTICIPATED. OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/ WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW- REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE. */ PRECIPITATION-TYPE... CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. */ BLIZZARD... TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN 6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD / WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED. DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST. LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. */ WINDS... STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED. SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET / MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK * CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI * MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... 26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH. DETAILS... WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. 29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... TONIGHT... SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ONE BAND OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS PVD/BOS/BDL BY 03Z. BRIEF INCH PER HOUR SNOWS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BROADER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4 INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES TUESDAY NIGHT. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. *** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS *** A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... *** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES *** WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE WITH THIS STORM. TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET. TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL IMPACTS. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007- 012>021. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007- 015-016-019-022>024. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007- 015-016-019-022-024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004- 008>011-024-026. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235. STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236. STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...BELK/99 AVIATION...WTB/BELK MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

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