Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281410 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1010 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS AHEAD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFF THE COAST. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK ALONG WITH NIGHTTIME PATCHY DRIZZLE. A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...BUT MAY CLIP SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1000 AM UPDATE... OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO WARM UP ESP AWAY FROM THE CT RIVER VALLEY. ADJUST HIGHS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TO MATCH YESTERDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ESP SINCE IT STRUGGLED YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE. LASTLY ADJUST SKY TO INCLUDE THE CIRRUS POTENTIAL THAT IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTER FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS AHEAD. MORE OF S-SW FLOW IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF COAST...BUT GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD REACH MID 80S AWAY FROM COAST. RECORD HIGHS AT PROVIDENCE...WINDSOR LOCKS AND PERHAPS WORCESTER WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SHOULD BE A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH BROAD S/SW FLOW IN PLACE... OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH A RETURN OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S AND LOWER 60S. TIMING OF COLD FRONT DROPPING S THROUGH REGION MON IS HANDLED WELL BY 00Z MODELS. IT SHOULD REACH MA/NH BORDER 12Z-15Z...PUSH THROUGH BOSTON AND MASS PIKE CORRIDOR BY 18Z THEN MUCH OF CT...RI AND SE MA BY 21Z OR SO. INCREASING NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF E MA MON AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS FROM BOSTON TO NE MA WILL OCCUR LATE IN MORNING...BEFORE READINGS DROP DURING AFTERNOON. IN FACT NAM 2M TEMPERATURES FALL INTO UPPER 50S BY EVENING AROUND CAPE ANN. FARTHER INLAND...IT IS USUALLY DIFFICULT FOR COOLER AIR TO PENETRATE MUCH PAST WORCESTER HILLS SO WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH... ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS SEEN ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS. INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF AND NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN WAY OF RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HEADLINES... * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY * UNCERTAIN FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY * LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP MIDWEEK OFF SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD TRACK S OF THE REGION OVERVIEW... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH H5 TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH ALLOWS A BROAD SURFACE REFLECTION TO BEING FORMING OVER THE SE STATES THAT MOVES OFF THE COAST. MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN AFTER TUESDAY...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH TRIES TO OPEN UP AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWLY SHIFT E OVER TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER EASTERN TROUGH TRIES TO SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINAS BY MID WEEK. NOTING SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND GGEM...THOUGH THE 00Z EC APPEARS A BIT BETTER. ONE THING THAT APPEARS TO BE WELL AGREED UPON...LARGE SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS QUEBEC DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH RIDGING BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. THE BIG PROBLEM WILL BE THE PERSISTENT NE WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N AND GENERAL LOW PRES/TROUGHING TO THE S. THIS WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AT LEAST AROUND MID WEEK. BY LATE THIS WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG AGAIN AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF POSSIBLE H5 CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID ATLC OR NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO...WHILE ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE...MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. DETAILS... MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASING NE WIND FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST OF MASS. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR A TIME ALONG THE E COAST OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM BOSTON UP TO CAPE ANN. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AS A PIECE OF AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT NE WIND IN PLACE...BRINGING COOL TEMPS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT LEAST TO MID WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TUE AND WED...THOUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT BETTER DURING THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD S OUT OF QUEBEC...THOUGH NE WINDS CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THU AS THE SE U.S. LOW MAY TRY TO PUSH OFFSHORE WELL S AND E OF NANTUCKET. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERSISTENT NE WINDS CONTINUE...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W LATE FRI OR SAT...BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON. LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY ALONG BOTH COASTS...THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAK ALONG E MA COAST AND PROBABLY WILL NOT GET VERY FAR INLAND. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT ANY IFR/LIFR WILL BE LOCALIZED...LESS SO THAN THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION MON WITH WIND SHIFT TO N/NE. TIMING IS 12Z-15Z ALONG MA/NH BORDER...AROUND 18Z BAF-ORH-BOS... BY 21Z BDL-PVD-PYM AND CLOSER TO 00Z TUE ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. VFR CIGS 040-050 AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...MAINLY LATE IN DAY ACROSS S NH AND N MA. MAY ALSO BE ISOLD SHOWER. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE ONSET SHOULD BE A BIT LATER THAN USUAL...MORE LIKE 16Z-18Z...AND IT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY REMAIN OVER BOS HARBOR OR ON E END OF AIRPORT. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE. NE WINDS MAY PICK UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST OVERNIGHT...GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE FROM KBOS TO KBVY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR... THOUGH COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS REGION WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW AND FLAT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS MON...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES S INTO THE REGION. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT /HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE/. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE OPEN WATERS...UP TO 5-6 FT E OF CAPE ANN TO E OF BOSTON HARBOR. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT NE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. LONG NE GROUND SWELLS WILL BUILD UP DURING THE WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SWELLS MAY BUILD UP TO 7- 12 FT BY THURSDAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 9/28 BOSTON.......... 90 IN 1881 AND PREVIOUS YEARS PROVIDENCE...... 84 IN 1943 WORCESTER....... 84 IN 1916 WINDSOR LOCKS... 83 IN 1959 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...EVT/JWD MARINE...EVT/JWD CLIMATE...

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