Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 281350
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
950 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOLLOW TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE...LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ERODING
WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AS DISCERNED FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. LOT OF DRY AIR ENCAPSULATED PER 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF
CHATHAM. HIGH PRESSURE AND CONFLUENT FLOW ARE GOING TO PERSIST
WELL INTO THIS EVENING IF MODELED MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT. BELIEVE
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MUCH OF S NEW
ENGLAND DRY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLE-SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
S/W CT AND RI LATE AND MAINLY INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE PUSH OF
MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY AND POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY E.

WILL KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
S/W NEW ENGLAND MAINLY CONFINED TO CT / RI. INCREASING CLOUDS PER
OVER-RUNNING THOUGH KEPT MAINLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE WITH A MEAN W
TO E FLOW AND PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SINKING AIR TO THE N.

HIGHS INTO THE 60S. COOLER ALONG THE SHORE. WILL SEE A SEA-BREEZE
KICK IN CLOSE TO NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF S NEW ENGLAND LIKELY RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
THESE CLOUDS AND THE EXTENT OF THEM WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW
LOW THE TEMPERATURES GET OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS PROVIDED OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN
QUICKLY ENOUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN CT AND RI AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR S.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE COASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT
* COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN/MON
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT
LAKES MID LEVEL TROF LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH.
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN BUT
GENERAL THEME WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN
INTO MON AS BOUNDARY SETS UP TO THE SOUTH WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TUE BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MILD AND DRY
WEATHER HANGS ON INTO WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY BE LURKING JUST
OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING OFF NJ
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOSTLY SW OF NEW ENG
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHERN EDGE COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF CT
INTO S RI FRI EVENING. THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS SAT WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S
NEAR THE COAST.

SUN INTO MON...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO WITH
OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF STEADIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS SUN INTO MON AND
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER. COULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR.

TUE INTO WED...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER TUE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS BUT STILL CANT
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AS MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WED. GFS IS
DRY AND MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT ECMWF HAS LOW PRES JUST
OFFSHORE WITH RAIN THREATENING AT LEAST THE COAST WITH COOL NE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S-COAST RI/MA TONIGHT.
SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING BY NOON ALONG BOTH E/S COASTS TODAY.
DOMINANT ONSHORE E FLOW FOR FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...WINDS TURNING E AROUND 15Z /11A/ INITIALLY LIGHT
BUT INCREASING CLOSE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING INTO EVENING WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SCA.

SUNDAY INTO MON...INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. VSBYS
REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL


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