Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 172251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. IT MAY TURN UNSETTLED THU INTO
FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE DRY
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
650 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF SHOWERS WAS EXITING CAPE COD AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO S COAST AND WILL
CROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS BY 9 OR 10 PM. BEHIND FRONT...DRIER AIR
HAD ALREADY SETTLED INTO MUCH OF INTERIOR AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO
COAST TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WAS ALREADY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. A COOL AUTUMN
LIKE NIGHT EXPECTED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW OF THE GOOD
RADIATORS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE/WED AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
* DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI

OVERVIEW...

NOT THE MOST SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND NO
SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN SIGHT. FAIRLY BLOCKY PATTERN FOR AUGUST
PERSISTS...WHICH INITIALLY HELPS SUPPRESS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR S
TUE-WED BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THU-FRI BEFORE
TAKING UP RESIDENCE E OF NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES WHICH
LENDS CONFIDENCE ON NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

TUE INTO WED...

COMBINATION OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCK AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND... WHICH WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF RAINFALL WELL TO OUR
S. WHILE MOST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
NE FROM GREAT LAKES STAYS TO OUR N AND W...FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
REACH W NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY WED OR MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT.

THU INTO FRI...

RIDGING PUSHES OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND EVEN TRIES TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY. LIFT AND PRESENCE OF COLDER
AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS
SHOWN BY 12Z GFS...BUT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD COUNTERACT
AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT AWAY FROM COAST AND MORE IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF W NEW ENGLAND. KEPT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
IN DETAILS WITH HIGHER VALUES W.

TROUGH OPENS UP AND WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
MARITIMES...BUT E/NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED N OF REGION. EXPECT TO SEE FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
FRI BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN THU.

NEXT WEEKEND...
UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST LEAVING OUR AREA
IN SUBSIDENCE ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. STILL LOOKING AT COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH E/NE FLOW
PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

00Z TAFS COORDINATED WITH ZBW.

MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE ON CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU BY 03Z...OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH W/NW WINDS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW FLOW...BUT SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AROUND 20Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA
BREEZES POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT BUT
LIGHT E/NE FLOW. SEAS MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FT BY THU/FRI ON OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE COD AS WINDS COME CLOSE TO 20KT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THU INTO FRI ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
DRY THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



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