Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 060231 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 931 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND FRI. THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...FIRST SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... * WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM * 930 PM UPDATE... BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE OFFSHORE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO SO WE WILL ALLOW ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. RADAR SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PATCH OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG S COAST BUT MOST /IF NOT ALL/ OF THIS IS ALOFT AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES UNTIL THIS HEADS OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIVERS SHOULD STILL BE ALERT FOR ICY ROADS NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MORNING COMMUTE THU. OTHER MAIN STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY NW TO SE ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD HEADS OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 BELOW ACROSS INTERIOR AND 5 TO 15 CLOSER TO COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. QUIET BUT CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPERATURES...NOT AS COLD THIS WEEKEND AND MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK * PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH WEST COAST AND EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE HOLDING ON THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF A DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z EPS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUID THAT THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YIELDING MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AND TEMPS MODERATING TO POSSIBLY SEASONABLE LEVELS /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/ NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PRECIP...NORTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THE DOMINANT AIR STREAM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS MID LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND PRECLUDING STREAMS FROM MERGING/PHASING AT THIS LONGITUDE...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DELIVER A FEW MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVES/FRONTS TO ZIP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AND RISK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARRIVES SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TRAILING IMPULSE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 930 PM UPDATE... LEFTOVER MVFR/IFR AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE 04Z THU. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH FRI NIGHT. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR NE MA WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SCA REMAINS UP MAINLY FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...MODEST WSW WIND OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY...MODEST WNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN WINDS BECOME SW AT NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUN NIGHT. MON...SW WINDS IN THE AM WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THEN WNW IN THE PM BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. TUE...LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/JWD MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/JWD

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