Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161753 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 153 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER VALLEY. TONIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS /MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH- COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THURSDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S. THURSDAY NIGHT... STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI * MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON * CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. DAILY DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS. FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND. ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FRIDAY...INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND... BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT... THOMPSONVILLE HARTFORD MIDDLE HADDAM MONTAGUE NORTHAMPTON OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY RECEDE. OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>234-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF

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