Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 062136 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 436 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH TEMPERATURES DROP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. THE MODELS OFFER SOME VARIATION ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...SOME KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OTHERS BRINGING IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES OVER OR NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD PRODUCE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN ANY ONE LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK....THEN TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. * PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS REMAINING VERY MINOR. OVERVIEW... 06/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS FLOW PATTERN. TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES IS PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BASED THIS FORECAST ON A CONSENSUS BLEND FROM SUNDAY ONWARD TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES MODERATING...BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...BUT EXTENT OF WARMING TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD COME CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WEDNESDAY...AS THERE ARE MORE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COLDER...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020-030 CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF -SHSN ON CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE FOR CALM WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BUILD JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT IS MARGINAL. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUAL SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WESTERLY 25 KT GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS A STORM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/RLG MARINE...BELK/RLG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.