Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 010749 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE RAIN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE * MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVERVIEW... VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG. STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. DAILIES... MON NIGHT INTO TUE... INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE. WEDNESDAY... CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 12-15Z TODAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE. WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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