Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 260814 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 414 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. DRY BUT COOL WEATHER PREVAILS INTO MON THEN RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT FAR FROM A WASHOUT. MUCH CHILLIER WEATHER EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ITS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 8 AM... POTENT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK RACING EASTWARD ACROSS NY/PA AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE ATTRIBUTES ARE WORKING IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE A LINE OF LOW TOP T-STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT 3 AM. UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF THE MODEL GUID IS SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION VERY WELL THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP13. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS NY STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NYC/LONG ISLAND AS JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. MEANWHILE BEST INSTABILITY /MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ TRACK FARTHER NORTH. AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY BECOME OUT OF PHASE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO EXPECTING A WEAKENING LINE OF T-STORMS/SHOWERS TO RACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY 11Z/12Z. AFTER 8 AM... LEAD SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. INITIALLY WILL HAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LOTS OF CU/STRATO- CU WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY. IN FACT ALL MODEL GUID HAS 925 MB - 700 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM BY 18Z. FURTHERMORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH TIME. THUS MOST CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WENT A BIT ABOVE GUID AND INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY /ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER/ ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PERHAPS CLOUD FOR A TIME. IN ADDITION A BRISK WEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE COOL CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT... DRY BUT CHILLY BEHIND SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD A CHILLY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S...THE BLYR WILL NOT DECOUPLE SO EXPECT A MODEST WEST WIND TO PROVIDE A BIT OF WIND CHILL. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND QUITE GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MONDAY... CHILLY START TO THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND. HOWEVER GOOD HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES PUSHES EASTWARD. WHILE NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE MU50S ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND LATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD AFTERNOON/S TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED EVENING BUT NOT A WASHOUT * MAINLY DRY AND COOLER ON THU * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSEANONABLY CHILLY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT * LOW CONFIDENCE IF A STORM AFFECTS THE REGION FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MONDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTYLING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF DOWNTOWN PROVIDENCE/BOSTON. THE ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. IT COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT COMES IN EARLY. TUESDAY... WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER WELL INTO THE 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MILDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED INTO WED EVENING...BUT FAR FROM A WASHOUT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. THURSDAY... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...BY SATURDAY HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHAT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNFICANT STORM DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TIMING AND WE COULD JUST AS EASILY END UP WITH A WEAK LOW PASSING WELL EAST OF THE REGION WILL LITTLE FANFARE. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN POSSIBLE OUTCOMES...SO WILL JUST NEED TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THRU 12Z... AREA OF LOW TOP SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NY WILL WEAKEN AS THE ACTIVITY ENTERS SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. VERY LOW RISK OF A BRIEF SHRA/-TSRA AT BDL/BAF IN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE QUIET REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH VFR. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AFTER 12Z... ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE. WEST WIND GUSTY 15-25 KT. DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP 15Z/16Z CIGS BKN040-060 WITH AN BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 15-25 KT. MONDAY... VFR BUT WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF BRIEF SHRA/-TSRA THRU 09Z. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. WED...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THU...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES TODAY. FIRST COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW 20-30 KT. NOT MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SECOND FRONT...MORE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW END GALES /35 KT/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT... WNW GALES ON SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. MONDAY... WNW WINDS 20-30 KT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFT OVER SCA WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SCA SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA SEAS SHOULD AT LEAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236- 250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.