Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 021043 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 643 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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7 AM UPDATE... RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ASHORE UNDER THE UPPER LOW. CONTINUE TO EXPECT RAIN AREAS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON OBSERVED VALUES. POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM LAST EVENING. MOST AREAS ARE RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE OUTER CAPE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. GIVEN THIS AND THE EXPECTED TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER HALF AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHILLY FEELING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...CLEARING CONTINUES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS. FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE QUIET BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE QUIET...SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIG PICTURE... TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND SITS IN THAT POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA THEN BECOMES ZONAL THURSDAY. CONTOUR HEIGHTS WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...SUGGESTING COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE. BUT THAT WILL BE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HERE IN NEW ENGLAND HEIGHTS INITIALLY DROP BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS REBUILD OVER THE EAST COAST WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE DAILIES... FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH AN EAST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEPARTED NEW ENGLAND WILL LINGER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND FEED CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT EAST FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASS EAST COAST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND EASTERN PA WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEAST BY THIS FLOW. AS THE FRONT LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW...THE PUSH WILL DIMINISH AND SO THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS A CHALLENGE. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT TO THE HUDSON VALLEY 18Z AND TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 00Z...THEN TO THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST BY 06Z. SO THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ROUGHLY NOON TO MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE HAVE AIMED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE WOULD BE 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING LIFTS NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND SUNDAY BUT WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING ING COOLER AIR. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WOULD MIX TEMPS OF 1-3C TO THE SURFACE AND SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...COULD BE UPPER 50S IN THE HILLS. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOUT 4C MONDAY SO MAX SFC TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER...WE WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 LOOKED REASONABLE. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA TUESDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST...MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN THE CT VALLEY AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY SLOWLY AS RAIN COMES TO AN END. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MOVING WEST. CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR IN FOG/DRIZZLE. SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CT VALLEY AND WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS AND FOG MOVE ACROSS RI/EASTERN MASS/MERRIMACK VALLEY NH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PATCHES OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL THE WATERS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN ON EAST WINDS AND REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND DRIZZLE. DIMINISHING 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER AND NORTHEAST- EXPOSED WATERS MAY REQUIRE A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS DURING THE MORNING IN FOG AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEA MONDAY. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS AND SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS GET QUIETER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233- 234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/RLG MARINE...WTB/RLG HYDROLOGY...

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