Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 201433 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY... RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS EXCEPT FOR CHILLY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. WARM WEATHER TUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED BRINGING SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WED INTO THU WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CAUSING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY FRI...THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL HAVE VEIL OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM OFF SOUTHEAST USA COAST. SATELLITE TRENDS WERE SHOWING CLEARING TREND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES BY UP TO 2 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING...PUSHING TO MASS BAY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT TO E BUT TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS. SHOULD SEE THE HIGH CLOUDS FINALLY PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST...HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT... THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION...BUT ITS RIDGE WILL ELONGATE W-E ACROSS THE REGION AND SHIFT DOWN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE WILL START OFF FROM THE E...THEN WILL VEER TO SE-S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH CALM CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCALES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS STARTING TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING LOWS TO BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MONDAY... WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANTLY DRY DAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. S-SW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. H925 WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT...SO THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE GENERAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST THOUGH WILL BE ONSHORE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. MAY NOT MIX DOWN QUITE AS MUCH THOUGH...SO SHOULD SEE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. H85 TEMPS RISE DURING THE DAY...TOPPING OFF FROM +7C TO +10C...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH COULD TOUCH 70 ACROSS SOME LOCALES ALONG THE CT VALLEY. READINGS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL OVERVIEW... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND WED AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WED NIGHT AND THU. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WED INTO THU WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED AND ON THU. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...RATHER SIMILAR TO THE ONE DURING MIDWEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. HIGHLIGHTS... * WARM TUESDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. * STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE GALES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. * UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND DAILIES... MONDAY NIGHT...A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE LOWS HOLDING IN THE MID 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 925 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO +11C EASTERN AREAS TO +15C WESTERN AREAS. THE MORNING WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MUCH COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WEAK SEA BREEZES COULD ALSO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE COAST EARLY WED. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... BEGINNING IN WESTERN SECTIONS LATE TUE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS FRONT. TOTAL TOTALS INDICES APPROACH 50...TQ INDICES ARE 17 TO 18...AND K INDICES OF 31. THESE MIGHT INDICATE THAT A RUMBLE OF ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT OTHER STABILITY INDICES SUCH AS THE SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE IN POSITIVE TERRITORY...SO THIS IS NOT A BIG RISK. COULD SEE UP TO 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN MAGNITUDE AND TIMING BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT 40-45 KT WINDS AT BOTH 925 AND 850 MB PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THU. THE BEST MIXING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THU. WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30-35 MPH OVER THE LAND AND GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN COLD ADVECTION AND WARM APRIL SUNSHINE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS NEAR 60 BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BUT CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S. SATURDAY...AS DESCRIBED IN THE MODEL SECTION ABOVE...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM DURING MIDWEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER WE WILL BE QUITE WET...OR WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST...KEEPING US DRY AND WINDY. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO E-SE AND DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO S TONIGHT. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS IN WESTERN MA/NORTHWEST CT LATE TUE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE WED AND 30-35 KT POSSIBLE THU. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBS. LIGHT NE WINDS TO START OFF WILL VEER TO E-SE DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. GENERALLY LIGHT SE WINDS BECOMING S. MONDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH FEW S/SW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON TUE...INCLUDING SWELLS FROM A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SEAS AGAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...NW GALES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO PERHAPS 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...WITH 9 OR 10 FEET POSSIBLE WELL TO THE EAST OF NANTUCKET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER. RIVER LEVELS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THIS MORNING THEN RECEDING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT... HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...EVT/GAF MARINE...BELK/EVT/GAF HYDROLOGY...STAFF

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