Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 010831 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 431 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVE ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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430 AM UPDATE... WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS PA WILL PUSH THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AM NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR CONVECTION AS CLOUD TOPS ARE STARTING TO COOL AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER LOOKING DOWN STREAM...THIS PRECIP COULD ADD AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP TO A REGION THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN 2-5 INCHES OF QPF FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPING TEMPS QUITE COOL. IN FACT SOME SITES ARE CHILLED INTO THE MID 40S. BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT...FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE. AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AS MIXING AS BEEN OCCURRING ALL NIGHT. BUT VSBYS COULD DROP AS COMMUTERS DRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. TODAY... SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE 850 MB FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER PA WILL PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THANK TO HIGH PWATS AND A DESCENT 925MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP ACROSS N CT AND NORTHERN RI. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH AS THEY ALREADY RECEIVED A DESCENT AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL SOME THUNDER AS THE K INDEX INCREASES TO 33C AND SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER THE STALLED FRONT...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 60F TODAY. IN FACT...PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F. THIS IS DEFINITELY A COOL BEGINNING TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED. ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z. OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSTM WILL PERSIST... WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR. A PULSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP BUT COVERAGE IS STILL ISO ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PREVAILING WITHIN THE TAFS. TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY S RI AND SE MA. RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E TUE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY NE WINDS. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY THUNDER. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COASTS OF MA AND RI. WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE. LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU. FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...NONE. RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

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