Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 011817 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 217 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER WEATHER TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 2 PM UPDATE... AT 2 PM SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE MID LEVEL FGEN IS LOCATED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO A STEADIER RAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPS...COLD AIR DAMMING IN EARLY JUNE? THAT/S EXACTLY THE SETUP WE HAVE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS COOL NE FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ENHANCED BY CHILLY OCEAN TEMPS IN THE L50S IN MASS BAY AND UPSTREAM IN GULF OF ME. THUS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR JUNE 1ST...LITERALLY 20-25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL! SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED. ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z. OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...PERSISTENCE WILL BE A GOOD FORECAST REGARDING CIGS AND VSBYS. THUS IFR AND LIFR EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE MA/NH BORDER AT 2 PM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NYC/LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BLOSSOM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS 21Z-00Z. MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUE. TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN BECOMING STEADY AND HEAVY AT TIMES. NE WINDS CONTINUE. LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY CT/RI AND MUCH OF MA EXPECT NORTHWEST SECTIONS. TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDER CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE BUT NOT REACHING SOUTHEAST MA UNTIL SUNSET OR SO. TUE NIGHT...FURTHER IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH RAIN EXITING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MODEST NNE WIND. IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR AND VFR TOWARD MORNING. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS BUT LOWER IN TIMING OF RAIN. GUSTY NE WINDS. SHOWERS BECOME HEAVY WITH A LOW PROB OF ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS BUT LOWER IN TIMING OF RAIN. GUSTY NE WINDS. SHOWERS BECOME HEAVY WITH A LOW PROB OF ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE. LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU. FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING ABOUT 20-25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL! NORMAL HIGH TODAY IS 70-75. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST HIGHS ON THIS DATE. BOS...53...1992 PVD...56...1984 BDL...57...1992 ORH...52...2004 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...NONE. RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN CLIMATE...

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