Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 090757 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 357 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE. MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO RETURN ALONG WITH THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 200 AM UPDATE... RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR LEAVING TO JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS IN ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL MIX OUT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ BEGINS TO INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER NEAR DAY BREAK ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AT 20-25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. IT WON/T BE QUITE AS HUMID AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MIX OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL PROBABLY SEE ABOUT 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR JULY STANDARDS ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DRY MID LEVEL AIR MAY SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT UPDRAFT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE WE NEVER BASE A FORECAST ON QPF...BELIEVE THIS IS ONE BIG REASON WHY THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE OF IT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN VERY HIGH SHEAR AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS BUT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL. SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE RISK FOR ANY CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRIER/LESS HUMID WEATHER & SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI AND SAT * BECOMING MORE HUMID ALONG WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS SUN AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD A DRIER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS BEGINNING EARLY THIS PERIOD. THEN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN CANADA DESCENDS EQUATORWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS YIELDS AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL TROUGH OVER THIS AREA. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -2 SD BELOW CLIMO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRANSITIONING TO THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWER/T-STORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH DRIER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY...CORE OF COOLER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. REAL PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WHICH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. SAT...DRY/COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S BEFORE SUNRISE WILL CLIMB TO 80-85 INLAND WITH MU70S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY...WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. MONDAY/TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AS LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AHEAD OF POLAR VORTEX SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BECOMING MORE HUMID GIVEN THE MOIST INFLOW OFF THE ATLC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL 10-12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 25 KTS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BURN OFF TEMPORARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REFORM TONIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE A FEW SPOT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLAND WHERE LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...TREND TOWARD VFR...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA EARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY WHEN MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS...SO THESE SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT 4 TO 7 FOOT SEAS INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW RISK OF A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA

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