Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 291059 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY*** 7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA! SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER * LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS WELL MODELED. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND... ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR NW. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...FRANK/RLG

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