Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 011407 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1007 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS OVER CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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10 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THEME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TODAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER CT INTO NORTHERN MA. PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...YIELDING BEST OVERRUNNING ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-NORTHERN MA. THUS SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES PROVIDES THE RISK FOR A HEAVY DOWNPOUR AT ANY TIME. TEMPS...COLD AIR DAMMING IN EARLY JUNE? THAT/S EXACTLY THE SETUP WE HAVE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS COOL NE FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ENHANCED BY CHILLY OCEAN TEMPS IN THE L50S IN MASS BAY AND UPSTREAM IN GULF OF ME. THUS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH PERHAPS ONLY U40S HIGHER TERRAIN! MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR JUNE 1ST. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS VERY WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLED THIS IDEA VERY WELL...BUT THE TIMING NEEDED SOME TWEAKING. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST THE RAINFALL TIMING...AND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...W. ==================================================================== SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE 850 MB FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER PA WILL PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THANK TO HIGH PWATS AND A DESCENT 925MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP ACROSS N CT AND NORTHERN RI. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH AS THEY ALREADY RECEIVED A DESCENT AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL SOME THUNDER AS THE K INDEX INCREASES TO 33C AND SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER THE STALLED FRONT...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 60F TODAY. IN FACT...PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F. THIS IS DEFINITELY A COOL BEGINNING TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL PICK BACK UP BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB FRONT WILL DROP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO PIN-POINT WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT RIGHT NOW BELIEVE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MASS PIKE AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT. THEREFOR HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ESP WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT DRIVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH TIL FROPA...00Z WED. ASIDE FROM THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDER. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL ENTER WESTERN ZONES AROUND 12-15Z AND SOUTH COAST BY 21-00Z. OVERALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE WHERE DRIER WEATHER BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... THIS HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BECOME SEASONABLE FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF LATER FORECAST HAVE A SLOWER TIMING. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...FRIDAY WOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SATURDAY...01/00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE ARE THE SAME TIMING QUESTIONS FROM FRIDAY. WITH A SLOWER TIMING...RAINFALL CHANCES WOULD ONLY GO HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. SUNDAY...ASSUMING FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 10 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY A GOOD FORECAST FOR TODAY. SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW RISK OF ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN CT AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUE. RAINFALL NOT NEARLY AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ================================================================== TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSTM WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR. A PULSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL ISO ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PREVAILING WITHIN THE TAFS. TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY S RI AND SE MA. RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E TUE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY NE WINDS. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY THUNDER. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COASTS OF MA AND RI. WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE ONCE MORE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST LATE. LOCAL SEABREEZES STILL POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS AND SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND FOG LIMITING VSBYS DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUE. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED...THEN SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE THU. FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STILL NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...NONE. RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

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