Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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670 FXUS61 KBOX 241407 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1007 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry weather this weekend will continue into early next week. A slow-moving low pressure and cold front could lead to some showers late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 am update... No much change to the forecast. High pressure building into the region but still breezy. Some decent gusts presently along the S coast upwards of 20 mph will make for some morning issues for small craft on the waters. Otherwise drier air working in will aid in making conditions clear if they are not so already. Daytime mixing with abundant sunshine, likely to see some scattered diurnal cumulus. Cooler airmass building in from the N, temperatures going to be slightly below seasonable ranging around the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight... With fall-like airmass settling in, clear skies and a weakening pres gradient, looking at a good night for radiational cooling. One of the cooler nights in recent memory expected. Bufkit inversions suggest temps in sheltered valleys could reach mid- upper 30s, particularly in NW MA. As such, will hoist Frost Advisory for Franklin CO. This could potentially be expanded. Elsewhere, still expect upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday... With a cool start, in spite of what should be abundant sunshine, high temps will only be able to reach low-mid 60s. Light NW breezes definitely will give it a fall feel. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * Areas of Frost possible Sunday Night across NW zones * Frontal system late Monday/Tuesday will bring widespread showers * More seasonable temperatures return by Tuesday Overview/confidence... High confidence in below average temperatures Sunday night into Monday. Model guidance is in better agreement then 24 hours ago with passing frontal system bringing precipitation to the region late Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will turn more seasonable for the remainder of the week. Guidance does begin to spread by late Wed into Thursday. The EC builds the North Atlantic ridge stalling the upper level low over the Ohio Valley where at the GFS is a bit less amplified keeping the cut-off low over New England. This leads to difference in both temperature and precip chances. Continues with model blend until guidance becomes more inline. Sunday night into Monday...High Confidence. High pressure settles over the region Sunday night resulting in light winds and clear skies. This will allow for radiational cooling which could plummet temps into the low to mid 30s away from the urban centers and coastal regions. Frost advisories will have to be issued with the potential for a possible freeze warning for NW zones. Will hold off for now due to current frost advisory to avoid double headlines. High pressure will remain over the region for most of the day before sliding offshore by the evening. Sea breeze development is possible across both coastlines. Otherwise anticipate a mostly sunny skies for most of the day with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 60s. Monday night into Tuesday...Moderate Confidence. Upper level ridge will move overhead Monday night as WAA spills into the region. Overnight temps will begin to fall during the evening hours before remaining steady or even rising by the early morning hours. A few showers are possible during the overnight hours, but the bulk of the rain will move through on Tuesday. Ahead of the FROPA, temperatures will warm into low 70s across the area. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well making it feel a bit more humid. Appears the best timing will be Tuesday morning which could make way to a rough morning commute. GEFS continue to show 70- 80 percent probs of over a half of an inch of rain, so confidence is increasing in widespread rainfall. Lastly, a good pressure gradient behind the passing frontal system could result in gusty winds near 20-25 mph. Wednesday and Beyond...Low Confidence. Guidance begins to diverge within this timeframe as mentioned above. EC keeps the region more wet by late next week with the upper level low to our west. The GFS is a more dry scenario with perhaps a few diurnal showers within the cold core low over the region. Will continue with a model blend for temperatures but will keep the forecast dry for now until guidance spread decreases. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short-term /through Sunday/...High confidence. VFR. N/NW winds 20 to 25 kts especially during the daytime periods lingering into evening. KBOS TAF...There is the possibility of a sea-breeze around the midday timeframe. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Monday...High confidence. VFR. Sea Breezes along the coast. Monday night thru Wednesday...Moderate confidence. VFR through the period with localized MVFR in rain on Tuesday. Gusty winds southerly winds near 30 kts across East coastal terminals. Improving trend on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short-term /through Sunday/...High confidence. Today... Small craft boaters should be aware of the persistence of N winds upwards of 20 kts through much of today, settling towards evening under the influence of high pressure. Seas holding around 5 feet thus will continue the small craft advisories where the threat of 5 foot seas and gusts up to 25 kts is more likely. Tonight into Sunday... Resurgence of NW winds to near 25 kt will likely require near shore waters to once again have a small craft advisory, and continue the ocean waters. Seas will be the issue tomorrow, dropping from about 6-7 ft through the day. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... High confidence in high pressure settling over the waters Sunday night into Monday. This will allow in lingering 5 foot seas to dissipate. Strong cold front will approach the waters late Tuesday. Ahead of the front southerly winds will increase just shy of gales with seas building as a response. Vsbys will drop within any heavy rain showers as the front passes. Winds and seas will relax by Wednesday as weak high pressure builds back over the waters. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ002-003. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Doody/Dunten NEAR TERM...Doody/Dunten/Sipprell SHORT TERM...Doody LONG TERM...Dunten AVIATION...Doody/Dunten/Sipprell MARINE...Doody/Dunten/Sipprell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.