Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 261929 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 329 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... YIELDING A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS...BUT MILD AFTERNOONS. A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 230 PM UPDATE... STEADY RAIN SHIELD IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER NY STATE IS INITIATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND INTO SOUTHEAST NY...MOVING ESE. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE WILL BEGIN TO DRY UP SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO CT/RI AND ESPECIALLY OFF THE SOUTH COAST. T-STORMS OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS NORTHERLY LAND TRAJECTORY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY DRIZZLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SO TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S WILL THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT FROM THE COLD OF TODAY. STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL BUT A WELCOME DIFFERENCE AFTER THE 40S TODAY. WED NIGHT... SFC RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS ACTIVATED.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS THIS WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW...STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEK...FINALLY PERMITTING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR LABRADOR TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND HIGHER HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SHOULD BE EXTEND JUST ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP A LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. SEABREEZES STILL LIKELY BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CORE OF A HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR OUR REGION. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY PERMIT SOME SHOWERS TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ASPECT TO BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. A LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH INTO OUR REGION. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE MARITIMES...THIS WILL BE A STRUGGLE. THE FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON THE LOCATION OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL DATA SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BY. BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SLOWER TIMING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 230 PM UPDATE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THRU 00Z...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MAIN SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN NOW OFF THE COAST. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST THRU 00Z. SO EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN MA. AFTER 00Z...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TREND FROM MVFR/IFR TO MVFR 00Z-03Z WITH MUCH OF THE REGION VFR BY 06Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. WED...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND SEABREEZES TRACK. VFR WITH LIGHT WEST WIND. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THESE BOUNDARIES TRACK AS DEEP BLYR MAY MIX DOWN WEST WINDS 10-15 KT...PRECLUDING SEABREEZES FROM TRACKING TOO FAR INLAND. WED NIGHT...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. VFR...DRY AND LIGHT WINDS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DURATION OF SEABREEZE TOMORROW/WED. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 1030 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SPEED UP ARRIVAL OF SCA WINDS TO LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ========================================================================= SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT INCREASING SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AM NOT COMFORTABLE TAKING IT DOWN AT THIS POINT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FEET SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. MAINLY E/NE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231- 232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA

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