Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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632 FXUS61 KBOX 270537 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 137 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... YIELDING A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS...BUT MILD AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...CONTINUING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS SNE BUT CLOUDS ERODING TO THE NORTH AND AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND THE CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT N WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WE EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH COAST WHERE TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WED... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW WITH COLUMN FAIRLY DRY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND XSECTIONS. HOWEVER COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD SCATTERED DECORATIVE CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING TOMORROW WITH BLYR EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 800 MB. HOWEVER TEMPS ALOFT /850 MB/ ONLY ABOUT -2C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S. ALTHOUGH IT WILL FEEL MILD GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH IT BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY/S HIGHS. WEAK PGRAD WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. WED NIGHT... DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY NIGHT. THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MOS TEMPS OVER THE WARMER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS THIS WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW...STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEK...FINALLY PERMITTING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR LABRADOR TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND HIGHER HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SHOULD BE EXTEND JUST ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP A LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. SEABREEZES STILL LIKELY BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CORE OF A HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR OUR REGION. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY PERMIT SOME SHOWERS TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ASPECT TO BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. A LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH INTO OUR REGION. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE MARITIMES...THIS WILL BE A STRUGGLE. THE FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON THE LOCATION OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL DATA SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BY. BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SLOWER TIMING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR 06-09Z. TODAY...VFR. EXPECT SOUTH COAST SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZES PENETRATING E COASTAL MA. TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. THU...VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH COASTS. KBOS TERMINAL...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE TODAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF SEABREEZE AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SEABREEZES MORE LIKELY THU. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT...N/NE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WED AND WED NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS GIVEN WEAK PRES GRADIENT. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. MAINLY E/NE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ003-004. MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-014- 016>023. RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/KJC MARINE...BELK/NOCERA

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