Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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903 FXUS61 KBOX 181835 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 135 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will likely bring a period of showers late Monday into Monday night. This will set the stage for potentially near record high temperatures Tuesday, and especially Wednesday. A cold frontal passage will bring lower temperatures late this week, along with the potential for some unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A large high pressure will pass by just to the south of New England tonight. This will mean diminishing wind this evening, especially overnight. Once this high pressure approaches the Maritimes late tonight, a light south wind should develop. Decent radiational cooling conditions tonight. Expecting lows to be mainly in the 20s. This should be sufficient to refreeze any standing water into black ice on untreated surfaces.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Increasing south winds will boost temperatures well above normal Monday, and likely keep temperatures nearly steady or slowly rising Monday night. Morning sunshine. Increasing clouds during the afternoon as a warm front approaches. There appears to be enough forcing and moisture for a likely period of showers sometime late afternoon into Monday night. Chance for showers should decrease after midnight Tuesday as a warm front moves into northern New England. It should remain mostly cloudy, though.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Warm front likely brings a round of rain showers late Mon/Mon night * Near record breaking warmth possible Tue/Wed w/highest risk Wed * Cooler temperatures Thu/Fri/Sat with perhaps some unsettled weather Details... Monday and Monday night... Some morning sunshine will fade behind increasing cloudiness ahead of an approaching warm front. Enough forcing/lift will be available with this front for a round of rain showers late Mon/Mon night. High temps Mon will be well up into the 40s to near 50...but expect mainly steady or slowly rising temperatures Mon night with plenty of low clouds and increasing low level moisture. Areas of fog may also develop. Tuesday and Wednesday... Anomalous 594 decimeter upper level ridge off the southeast coast will set the stage for the potential of near record warmth Tue/Wed in southern New England. If enough sunshine is realized...high temperatures will soar well into the 60s away from the marine influence of the south coast/Cape/Islands Tue/Wed. In fact...model 2 meter temperature guidance continues to indicate the potential for 70+ degree readings on Wed in some locations. With that said...there is one big fly in the ointment that could result in cooler temperatures than we are currently forecasting. Model cross sections indicate a fair amount of low clouds on Tue and possibly some on Wed. If low clouds do get in the way it still would be mild...but high temps would mainly be in the 50s. Greater concern for low clouds appears to be Tue...but can not rule them out Wed either especially near the south coast. Thursday/Friday/Saturday.... While the upper level ridge off the southeast coast will remain fairly strong...a 1040 mb surface high across eastern Canada and northern New England will force a cold front south of the region. This will result in cooler temps Thu/Fri/Sat...but still expect readings to average above normal. Will have to watch for a bit of ana frontal precipitation on Thu...but that is uncertain. A better chance for a period of precipitation exists sometime Fri and/or Sat...but low confidence on timing. Ptype favors liquid, although we can not rule out a bit of ice/snow if Canadian High Pressure hangs in a bit longer. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence. Tonight...VFR. Gusty NW winds diminish prior to 19/00Z. Washington`s Birthday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible late. Breezy. Chance SHRA late. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR in -SHRA. Areas IFR possible toward the south coast, including the Cape and islands. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence. Tuesday: MVFR with local IFR possible. Breezy. Patchy BR. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence. Tonight...Small Craft Advisories will gradually expire into this evening, lingering longest across the outer coastal waters due to rough seas. NW winds back to S. Good visibility. Washington`s Birthday into Monday night...Increasing S winds, resulting in build seas across the outer coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed across the outer coastal waters. Will post those, once the current set of advisories has expired. Chance of rain showers. Patchy fog possible Monday night with visibility of 1 to 3 nm. Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...Moderate to High confidence. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record Highest Observed Temperature for February... (since records began) Boston.........73 (02/24/2017) Hartford.......73 (02/24/1985) Providence.....72 (02/24/1985) Worcester......69 (02/24/2017) Record High Temperatures (Tuesday 20th / Wednesday 21st)... February.......20th......21st..... Boston.........68 (1930) 63 (1906) Hartford.......69 (1930) 63 (1930) Providence.....69 (1930) 63 (1930) Worcester......65 (1930) 59 (1930) Record Warmest Low Temperature... February.......20th......21st..... Boston.........46 (1930) 45 (1994) Hartford.......50 (1981) 49 (1981) Providence.....48 (1981) 50 (1981) Worcester......47 (1981) 43 (2002) && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ250- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ254- 255.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Frank NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...Belk/Frank MARINE...Belk/Frank CLIMATE...Staff

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