Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 181105 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM UPDATE... PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY*** TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON * A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN OVERVIEW... MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE. HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI. DAILIES... SUN NIGHT... CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED. MONDAY... SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE BEST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND. ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING WED/THU TIMEFRAME. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING SWELL. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY. TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10- 15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN

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