Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 270849 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 349 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OFF NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AM KEEPING AN EYE ON A SOLID AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN THAT HAS BEEN PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THE NAM AGAIN PEGS THIS WELL...AND FORECASTS IT TO NUDGE INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MA...NORTH OF ROUTE 2 FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS IN THE GRIDS IN THAT AREA INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST REMAINS DOMINANT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGE AXIS CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT GENERAL W WINDS EARLY TO BEGIN TO BACK TO SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION AS H925 TEMPS TO RISE TO +3.5C TO +6C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SW WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY...UP TO 10-15 MPH. TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE W. SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/W PA AND NY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE NIGHT AS MILD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SW WINDS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME COOLER AIR MAY BE BRIEFLY TRAPPED AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW MA. HAVE CARRIED SCT RAIN SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 30S...EXCEPT AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT * A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK * TURNING COLDER DURING THE WORK WEEK AND MAINLY DRY DETAILS... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FROM EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA...ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND AS A RESULT THERE MAY STILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THAT AREA HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS ARE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE...IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA NEXT WED...BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO CONTINUE TO THINK RESULT WILL BE LIMITED TO SOME CLOUDS. OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS IN THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE MAKING A PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW ON WHETHER THIS SCENARIO BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS OUR AREA. CONTINUING WITH THE CONSENSUS DRIER SCENARIO FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. OUR AREA IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THAN A DISTANT LOW PRESSURE...PASSING THROUGH HUDSON BAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY. OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE CONTINUED INDICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT...BUT SINCE THIS IS 7 DAYS OUT TIMING COULD EASILY CHANGE. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND CENTRAL NH WHICH COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERNMOST MA...NORTH OF ROUTE 2 UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CENTRAL CT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. W WINDS BECOME SW AND MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WERE STILL RUNNING NEAR 5 FT AT BUOY 44097 SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. HOWEVER AM EXPECTING THEM TO SUBSIDE TO 4 FT THEN 3 FT FOR THE MAJORITY OF TODAY. USED SWANNAM GUIDANCE WHICH IS HANDLING THE SEAS SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN THE WAVEWATCH HERE IN THE NEAR TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. TONIGHT... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO ALMOST 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND FOR RHODE ISLAND SOUND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET IN THOSE AREAS...AND THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235- 250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAF/NMB NEAR TERM...GAF SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...NMB/GAF AVIATION...GAF/NMB MARINE...GAF/NMB

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