Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 171108 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 708 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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7 AM UPDATE... AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SNE. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATEST. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM T/TD/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEATHER. 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 8C AND WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO 850MB...COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL AS GUSTY SW WINDS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON * A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING TROF IN THE EAST. TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. DAILIES... SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY. AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN. GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN. GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED. SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH LESS WIND. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ. SO...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. TONIGHT...VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS IN TYPICAL PRONE REGIONS. TOMORROW...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY SHOWER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS. TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN

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