Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
905 FXUS61 KBOX 170731 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 331 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER MARINE AIR IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK INTO NEXT SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT HAVE BROUGHT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND THUS WARMER AIR. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING ALLOWING FOR FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WARMER TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS... * SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY * MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER MID WEEK INTO NEXT SAT OVERVIEW... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EAST COAST RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER MIDWEST TROF MOVES EAST. AHEAD OF THE TROF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY LATER MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THEN MID LEVEL TROF SETS UP ACROSS SE CANADA FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY BUT SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT... SFC RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MAINE GRADUALLY MOVES SE THROUGH TUE AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE GT LAKES. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWAT AXIS OF 1.5-1.75" AND MODEST INSTABILITY BURST WITH ADVECTION OF HIGHER KI VALUES INTO SNE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SHOWERS WILL BE SCT IN NATURE BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWATS...WITH MODELS TARGETING N MA. AXIS OF HIGHER MUCAPES REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST DURING TUE...BUT WEAKENING ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW ENG LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS MAY BE ACROSS W ZONES LATE TUE/TUE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. WED THROUGH SAT... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WED WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION BRINGING GUSTY W/NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE THU AND LATE FRI WHICH WILL REINFORCE W/NW FLOW. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING THE FROPAS MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS ABOUT 14-15Z. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN FOG. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM...ESPECIALLY TUE. WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. DRY WEATHER LIKELY. W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. E WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY MON NIGHT WITH S/SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING TUE...THEN SIFTING TO W/NW LATE TUE NIGHT BEHIND FROPA. SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS. WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOMING SW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS BELOW SCA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.