Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 181559 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1059 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue across southern New England into this evening. High pressure builds over the region beginning Thursday and through the weekend. A weak cold front slips through the high late Saturday, followed by Canadian high pressure and slightly colder temperatures for Sunday. Developing low pressure over the Southern Plains will bring rain and possibly some initial ice to New England Monday, with the rain lingering into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1050 AM update... We have issued Advisories for freezing drizzle for the following areas through 7 PM this evening... the slopes of the Berkshires, Worcester County mainly higher terrain...northwest Middlesex County...and western Essex County in northeast MA. Temperatures were hovering between 32 and 33 degrees in the Advisory area. Mesonet shows 31 to 32 degrees seeping southward into western Essex County in northeast MA as well, now that low pressure is passing well to the southeast of Nantucket and winds are from a northerly direction. HRRR and hi-res NAM show temperatures falling to 32 degrees by mid afternoon across much of Worcester County and remaining around 32 in the slopes of the Berkshires. A potential problematic area is also extreme north central Middlesex County, MA near the NH border, but did not wish to highlight all of MA Zone 5, which goes all the way southward to Cambridge, with an advisory, when it is close to 40 in that area. Showers were exiting eastern MA and this should be the end of the significant lift. With only shallow moisture and no ice in the clouds this afternoon, expecting the few snow reports currently observed in northeast MA to change to drizzle or freezing drizzle. Adjusted temperatures in those areas per short-term model blend. It is possible that the freezing drizzle could linger longer into tonight, but will re-evaluate this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Tonight... Continued ascent of low level moist profiles ahead of weak mid-level shortwave energy and associated positively tilted trough axis across the region by morning. Stronger signal of drier mid to upper levels and thus the lack of ice nuclei favorable towards snow development. But still a good onshore flow and maritime influence. Temperatures dropping overnight, there is the expectation over a good chunk of S New England of transitioning back over to wintry precipitation types. Precipitation still rather light given the weak ascent, will keep it simply and go with freezing drizzle OR light snow for those areas where temperatures are at or below-freezing. Confidence that the window of freezing drizzle will be from sundown to roughly around midnight. After midnight, another mid-level shortwave impulse should yield the right ingredients to make the dominant precipitation type as snow for any sub-freezing locales. Will see the light precipitation move offshore towards morning with winds reverting northwesterly. The drying process begins as cloud decks become broken W to E. Thursday... High pressure and drier air working into the region. Will see clouds become scattered W to E through the day allowing for sunshine prior to sundown over a good portion of S New England. Continued NW flow. Will see temperatures warm into the low 40s as heights rise across the region and warmer air moves in from the W. H85 temperatures nudge above freezing towards the end of the day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Big Picture... Upper ridge remains in control of the flow over the Eastern USA Thursday night through the weekend. A couple of weak shortwaves move through New England on Saturday. A more prominent shortwave currently south of the Aleutian Islands will reach the Pacific coast Friday and re-form over the Southern Plains Saturday night. The associated surface storm moves to the Southeast Atlantic coast Monday, then up the coast Tuesday. Upper height contours remain higher/warmer than normal much of the period, with heights dropping Monday night/Tuesday as the Southeast storm moves up the coast. Model mass fields are similar through Sunday but then diverge. Early next week the Canadian GGEM attempts to develop not one but two lows along the East Coast ahead of the GFS and ECMWF Sunday night, and the GGEM shows a much more intense storm than the other models for off our coast Tuesday. The differences limit forecast confidence, however impressive the storm is depicted. With no clear favorite, we will use a blend of model data. Details... Thursday night-Friday... High pressure over the region will maintain dry weather. Lingering moisture at 850 mb suggests some sky cover. Thursday night dewpoints of 25-35 will make room for min temps in that same range. Mixing reaches to 950 mb, with temps in the layer that will support max sfc temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Saturday-Sunday... High pressure remains in control. One southern stream shortwave slips through the ridge Saturday, while a northern stream shortwave slide through the Maritimes Saturday night. These bring an increase in moisture below 750 mb Saturday and Sat night, but little jet dynamics to promote lift. A slightly colder high pressure area moves in for Sunday. Expect partly sunny skies each day. Temps aloft support max sfc temps in the 40s Saturday and mid 30s to low 40s Sunday. Nightime temps continue in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Monday-Tuesday... The main concern for the long-term forecast period is, as noted above, a system south of the Aleutians that may bring precip to our area to start the week. The presence of Sunday`s high pressure parked over the Maritimes suggests cold air lingering in the interior. The thermal fields do show warming at all levels with time, so any initial ice should eventually change to rain. We will show chance pops for precip...based on the model differences and the current distance of the parent system from the North American upper-air network. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate Confidence. 1550Z update... This afternoon... Mainly IFR with areas of MVFR with areas of drizzle and fog. Light north flow through the CT River Valley while E/NE winds along the immediate E MA coast with gusts up to 25 kts, especially across the Cape and Islands. Tonight... Precipitation tapering off as DZ for most terminals, though FZDZ or -SN is forecast for interior terminals, again the focus being N of the Mass Pike and W of the I-495 beltway. Roughly speaking W and Central MA. Winds turning more N/NW and diminishing into the morning period. Will begin to see cigs become BKN W to E, lifting low-end VFR. But most of the overnight period is characterized as a mix of MVFR-IFR. Thursday... Conditions improving as cigs become BKN to SCT, lifting to low-end VFR. NW winds continue. Specific Terminals... KBOS TAF...will hold rain across the terminal throughout the duration of the TAF. With the E/NE onshore flow will keep cigs IFR down around 800 ft agl into Thursday morning. Can not rule out cigs lifting briefly at times up to 1500. KBDL TAF...RA/DZ for the most part. Will be watching the overnight period as to whether sub-freezing temperatures impact the terminal thereby creating a risk of icing with FZDZ. Low confidence at this time as the expectation is that NW winds will proceeding during the overnight period with drier air allowing conditions to begin to improve into morning. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Moderate confidence. VFR through the period. Patchy MVFR cigs possible especially along the South Coast.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday/...Moderate Confidence. 1050 AM update... This afternoon... Have downgraded the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory for the southeastern outer waters. Winds there have only been gusting to 25 to 30 kt. Seas up to 8 to 10 feet will continue on the outer waters, especially SE. Scattered showers and areas of fog, with some visibility reductions at times. Tonight into Thursday... Winds turn out of the NW and taper. Drizzle will linger into Thursday yielding some visibility restrictions out on the waters. Otherwise waves dampen as conditions improve going into Thursday. Will see see small craft advisories persist throughout the period over the outer waters. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Moderate confidence. North to northeast winds 15 knots or less. These become variable Friday as high pressure moves overhead, then west Saturday and north- northeast again Saturday night as a weak cold front sweeps through. Seas of 5-6 feet Thursday night will subside as high pressure builds overhead Friday. Seas will be mostly below 5 feet during the weekend, although areas of 5 foot seas may briefly return on the outer waters Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ002- 004-006-008-009-012-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>234-236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250-251- 254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell/Field NEAR TERM...Field SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/Sipprell/Field MARINE...WTB/Sipprell/Field

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