Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 271405 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1005 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... SKIES HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK S OF THE AREA. THE INCREASED MIXING HAS ALSO EVAPORATED REMAINING INTERIOR FOG. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING WERE TO RAISE HIGHS A BIT AS IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS ARE STARTING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... W/NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN MOSUNNY SKIES. SOME DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP GIVEN MARGINAL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB ALONG WITH WEAK FRONT/SFC TROF PROVIDING WEAK CONVERGENCE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT MIXING EXTENDING JUST ABOVE 850 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL AROUND 0C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE MA. SEABREEZES ALONG THE S COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER HERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WITH DRY AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS YIELDING ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF COLDER MOS TEMPS...WITH MINS RANGING FROM MID 20S TO LOW/MID 30S. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NE CT/RI AND E MA. THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL. ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT COOLER ALONG BOTH COASTS WHERE SEABREEZES LIKELY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE 26/12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND MOVING OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND INTO THE MARITIMES. THE 27/00Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MORE IN CONTROL WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BRINGING AN APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE EPS HAS ONE SOLUTION OFF THE DELMARVA WITH THE REST SPREAD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVELING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. THE GEFS HAS MOST MEMBERS SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA LOCATION MONDAY MORNING THOUGH ONE SOLUTION FOLLOWS THAT PATH BUT WITH ALL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND NEW ENGLAND AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE...AM LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN AND A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH COAST...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FOR THE FIRST OF MAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SO HARD TO SAY WHERE THEY WILL BE. RIGHT NOW BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS...THEY LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...VFR. EXPECT SOUTH COAST SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZES PENETRATING E COASTAL MA. TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. THU...VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH COASTS. KBOS TERMINAL...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE TODAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF SEABREEZE AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SEABREEZES MORE LIKELY THU. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING ONSHORE ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SUBSIDING SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WITH SEAS INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO ABOUT 5 FEET. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ002. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ003-004. MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-019-022. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017-018-020-021-023. RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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