Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 232001 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 400 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS...BUT SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER CT VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THE COLUMN IS STILL DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE E MA COAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE NC COAST BUT HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED NIGHT. JUST A LOW PROB FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE S COAST BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SOAKING RAIN THU/THU NIGHT SOUTH OF I-90 * LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND * UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND * BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COOLS US DOWN SOME BY NEXT MON OR TUE DETAILS... THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OUR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH OCEAN STORM THU/THU NIGHT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. WE CERTAINLY NEED TO REACT TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT. THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...STILL SOME RED FLAGS IN THIS SITUATION. THE MODELS NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO WHILE APPRECIABLE AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...AMOUNTS AND WHERE A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AMOUNTS TAKES PLACE IS UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IF MODELS TREND A BIT BACK TO THE SOUTH. STILL 48+ HOURS OUT SO A TREND FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SO ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU/THU NIGHT. ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS LOWER...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY. HIGH SURF...SINCE ITS STILL SEPTEMBER WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. FRIDAY... THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY REACH 70 TO 75 AS SUN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. THE MODELS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE OCEAN SYSTEM HAVING MUCH MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO SEE HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 80. DEFINITELY GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER. MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY..."IF" THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HIGHS PROBABLY WILL BE HELD IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY BUT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY... SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29... BOS...86...1998 BOS...90...1881 BOS...88...1952 BDL...88...1998 BDL...83...1959 BDL...86...1945 PVD...86...1998 PVD...84...1943 PVD...87...1945 ORH...85...1933 ORH...84...1916 ORH...84...1952 && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE. ITS MORE UNCERTAIN IF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRES GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OVER THE RI COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL GENERATE A GOOD NORTHEAST GRADIENT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT TIMES. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AS A RESULT OF LEFT OVER SWELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...KJC/FRANK MARINE...KJC/FRANK

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