Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 231451 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1051 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER LOW FIRED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY THE CENTRAL HILLS AND EAST. THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL- TOTALS OF 50-52. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS/CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WE WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 MPH. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT. THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY * UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK 23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. NON-WEATHER FACTORS FOR HEADLINES ARE STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED/COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG FIRE WEATHER...

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