Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 172014
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
414 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will bring unseasonably warm to hot
conditions through Thursday with increasing humidity. Warm
weather continues Friday as a cold front moves through ushering
in more seasonable conditions for Saturday. Another cold front
approaches Sunday night and moves through late Monday, with
showers likely. Another system may approach by the middle of
next week with unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure remains in control with dry weather. Southwest
winds linger near the shore and at higher elevations, but winds
become light elsewhere.

With the inflow of higher humidity air, we expect dew points to
climb into the lower 60s overnight. Cooling temps and rising
dew points may lead to areas of fog developing overnight. The
best chance will be along the South Coast and Islands, where the
humid air will flow over water temps that are cooler than the
dew points. This will create fog and stratus that will move
ashore on the Islands and South Coast. Probably not too much
further, until the winds turn more from due south.

Based on expected dew points, min temps will be in the 60s with
some 50s on the Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...

Bermuda high pressure in place through the day with southwest
flow across Southern New England. This will keep us in the humid
air with dew points remaining in the 60s except a few 50s where
the wind is coming directly off the ocean. Expect mixing to
again reach 800 mb, where temps of 13-14C are equivalent to
18-19C at 850 mb. Expect max temps of 90-95F, but again cooler
where the wind comes off the water and buffers the temps to the
upper 60s and 70s.

A cold front in the Great Lakes moves into western and northern
New York by evening. This will be an active day for convection
to our west, but questions remain as to how far east that will
reach during the day. Convective parameters become favorable
over northern and western Mass and northern CT. Totals reach the
low 50s, CAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/Kg, LI reaches -4 to -5. But
moisture remains limited and subsidence dominant over our area.
The best chance for any thunderstorms will be after 5 pm over
Northwest Mass.

Thursday night...

The chance of thunder continues during the evening but then
diminishes overnight. With a continued southwest flow the night
will remain mild and humid with dew points in the 60s. We will
again forecast 60s inland and 55-60 along the South Coast and
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Another warm day warm for Friday
* Sunny and pleasant this weekend
* Showers likely with scattered thunderstorms Monday
* Unsettled conditions possible by the middle of next week

Overview...

H5 long wave ridge pushes E Fri as short wave and associated
cold front works SE out of central Canada Friday. Looks like
most of the energy with this short wave remains over northern
New England, so may see only light precip late Fri/Fri evening
as main front crosses. Another large ridge builds into Hudson
Bay, keeping dry NW flow in place this weekend across the
northeast U.S. The ridge builds E over New England and Quebec by
early next week while cutoff mid level low across Ontario
shifts E. This system will bring another cold front across the
region around the Monday timeframe.

Beyond Monday, timing issues come into play amongst the model
suite which will be dependent upon position and movement of
cutoff H5 low pressure as it starts to expand across eastern
Canada. There may be a short wave swinging across the northern
tier around the base of the low, which could lead to unsettled
conditions by the middle of next week.

Details...

Friday...
Main cold front working SE during the day. Some question as to
areal coverage for any precipitation along with light QPF
amounts. GFS remains the driest model, while the GGEM and ECMWF
increase low level moisture across N CT/RI/E Mass. Due to these
discrepancies, have kept slight chance POPs for most areas, with
the best shot across the higher terrain of NW and N central
Mass. Decent instability hangs across S coastal areas, with K
indices in the lower 30s and surface LIs around -1 so have
mentioned isolated thunder there during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Noting decent low level mixing as H925 jet at around 25 kt
moves across with the front. Could see gusts in the 20-25 kt
range across the interior during the afternoon.

Any leftover showers should end as the front pushes offshore
Fri evening. Dewpoint fall through the 40s overnight, down to
the mid- upper 30s across N central and W Mass. N winds will
stir at around 10 mph, so probably won`t see radiational cooling
except for a few deeper inland valleys. Temps should bottom out
in the lower-mid 40s well inland, ranging to around 50 across
the coastal plain.

Saturday...
Will be a beautiful day with mostly sunny skies as high
pressure ridge builds across New England. N winds will shift to
E-SE around the base of the ridge, but winds will drop off with
mostly clear skies Sat night.

Highs will only reach the upper 50s to mid 60s along the
immediate coast with the onshore winds, ranging to the lower 70s
across the CT valley. If winds drop off, and with mostly clear
skies, winds could drop off and allow radiational cooling.
Expect lows in the lower-mid 40s away from the coast, ranging to
near 50 along the immediate shore. Will have to watch for even
chillier readings if winds become calm.

Sunday...
The high pressure ridge shifts slowly E during the day. Some
clouds may start to push in from the W during the afternoon as
winds shift to south. A warm front may start to approach late
Sunday or Sunday night, so may see some scattered showers
approach mainly Sun night across the interior. High will range
from the lower-mid 60s along the immediate S coast to the lower
70s well inland.

Monday through Wednesday...
Another low and associated cold front will work across the
region on Monday. Noting some decent deep layer moisture into
the system from down the coast along with some instability. Have
mentioned thunder along with the good chance for showers. Some
model signal of another secondary low developing down the coast
as the front crosses.

As the front shifts E, should see drier conditions on Tuesday
with seasonable temperatures.

Model solution spread comes into play for the Tuesday night-
Wednesday timeframe in handling another possible system as it
works out of the Ohio valley. At this point, bring in the chance
for showers from W-E during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

VFR in general, but areas of IFR/LIFR in stratus and fog may
develop tonight over the Islands and could reach the South Coast
overnight. Could be some MVFR vsbys in fog farther inland as
higher humidity air works in.

Thursday...

VFR in general. Areas of IFR/LIFR in stratus and fog over the
Islands early, but improving to VFR during the morning.
Conditions will be marginal at best for thunderstorms late in
the day. The best chance for this will be in Northwest Mass
after 21Z/5 PM. Southwest winds will again develop with gusts 20
to 25 knots.

Thursday night...

VFR in general. Widely scattered shower/thunderstorm with best
chance in Northwest Mass. Areas of IFR/LIFR overnight along the
south coast and Islands.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday...Moderate to high confidence.
Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS early along the south
coast. Winds shifting to the NW, gusting up to 20-25 kt. Slight
chance of a shower, isolated thunderstorm or two possible south
of the Mass Pike through Fri, moving offshore Fri evening.

Saturday...High confidence.
VFR. N wind around 10 kt, shifting to E-SE by around midday
then S by evening.

Sunday...Moderate to high confidence.
VFR. Increasing mid level cloudiness. CIGS lowering to MVFR
across central and western areas after midnight. SW winds
increasing to 10- 15 kt Sunday night mainly along the coast.
Chance of showers across western sections, moving E Sun evening.
Isolated thunderstorms after midnight central and western
areas.

Monday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR to local IFR early Monday, improving to VFR with local
MVFR possible across the interior. SW winds gusting to 20-25 kt
during the afternoon along the south coast. Showers with
scattered thunderstorms from N-S during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Southwest winds diminishing to less than 20 knots. Seas less
than 4 feet or less. Low visibility developing in areas of fog,
mainly over the south coastal waters overnight.

Thursday...

Southwest winds with gusts to 20 knots. There could be a few
gusts near 25 knots in Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay, but
not enough to support a Small Craft Advisory. Seas will be 4
feet or less. Low vsbys in morning fog on the southern waters.

Thursday night...

Southwest winds less than 20 knots. The persistent southwest
winds may be enough to bring 5-6 foot seas on the southern and
southeast outer waters as well as RI Sound.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday...Moderate confidence.
SW wind shifting to W-NW, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern
waters. Seas up to 5-7 ft, highest on the southern outer waters.
A few showers, with an isolated thunderstorm possible during
Fri, improving Fri evening.

Saturday...Moderate to high confidence.
N around 10 kt early, shifting to E to SE during the afternoon.
Seas lingering around 5 ft on the outer waters, subsiding
during the afternoon.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate confidence.
S winds early Sunday becoming SW. Gusts up to 20-25 kt, highest
on the outer waters on Monday. Seas 1-3 ft Sunday, building to
3-5 ft Monday, highest on the outer waters. Chance of showers
and/or thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Forecast highs for today are in the lower 90s for many
locations. There is the possibility of setting record high
temperatures.

Meanwhile, higher dew point air will mean a potential for
record high minimum temperatures. Temperatures early Thursday
morning are expected to be in the 60s, and early Thursday night
temperatures are expected to be in the 70s inland/60s coast.

Dew points will not be at their extremes for May 18th. The
historical extremes for the date are 67-69, and forecast values
are 60 to 65.

Record high temps for Today, May 17th:

Boston.......92/1977...High so far 91
Hartford.....93/1977...Record tied at 93
Providence...91/1977
Worcester....87/1906...Record tied at 87

Record high temps for Thursday, May 18th:

Boston.......91/1936
Hartford.....90/1936
Providence...92/1936
Worcester....90/1906

Record high minimum temps for Thursday May 18th:

Boston.......63/1896
Hartford.....64/1906
Providence...62/1943
Worcester....63/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ012-013-
     016>019.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
CLIMATE...Staff



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