Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 282349 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 649 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A POLAR FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON...BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER TUE. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
649 PM UPDATE... 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DEPICTING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE SNOWPACK THE BEST THIS EVENING. WE ARE LOOKING AT A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS CONNECTED ALL THE BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES SPILLING EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE BERKSHIRES. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THAT WILL MEAN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLUMN EVENTUALLY DRIES OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT WHATEVER LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EXPECT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND FRESH SNOWPACK. THE MAV GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE MET GUIDANCE...BUT NOT SURE I COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE MAV TEMPS...SO BLENDED IT WITH THE MET BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE BLEND. THIS GAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND TEENS EVERYWHERE ELSE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ISLANDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLOWLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS... * MUCH MILDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY * RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER TUESDAY * SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION... DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 28/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CALLS THE TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES INTO QUESTION. THE USA MODELS MAINTAIN A FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW LONGER THAN THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. SINCE THIS IS A DAY 6/DAY 7 PROBLEM...WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL THE ENERGY OF THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE BETTER SAMPLED. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THUS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET...AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE COMPLETING THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. COLUMN STRUGGLES TO SATURATE SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HENCE NOT A HIGH IMPACT EVENT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THIS PUSHES MILDER AIR NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA BOTH DAYS. A POLAR COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLE ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS/ LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...1042 MB HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGS COLDER THAN MONDAY. WEDNESDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP POSSIBLE WITH A WINTRY MIX GIVEN COLD AIR WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DISLODGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TREND IS FOR DRIER BUT A RETURN TO COLDER... BUT SEASONABLE...WEATHER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. SATURDAY...VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN LATE AT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS...AROUND 2000 FEET... WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY TO 40-45 KNOTS AND MAY CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MONDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE OR AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED MVFR WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AGAIN UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 FT ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND AROUND MIDDAY SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFT THERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEST SW WIND DEVELOPS...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. MONDAY...COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND...SO MODEST SW WINDS CONTINUE. TUESDAY...COLD HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEAS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY LIGHT SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-232- 256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251- 254-255.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/RLG MARINE...BELK/RLG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.