Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 190748 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. Precipitation chances will increase by the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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330 AM update... As forecast well by the NARRE, areas of low cloudiness and fog were forming across southern New England...mainly south of the Mass Pike. We have issued a Special Weather Statement for the fog in eastern CT, RI, and southeast MA valid through about 8 AM. Some of the fog was locally dense, especially from Plymouth to New Bedford and on upper Cape Cod from Falmouth to Hyannis. The fog should lift a few hours after sunrise. Temperatures were off to a chilly start, with upper 30s to mid 40s across much of the region. After areas of fog lift, skies will become sunny today. A weak upper level short wave trough will move across New England late this afternoon and early this evening, accompanied by some high level cirrus clouds. At the surface, a weak, dry cold front associated with this trough will be approaching the region during the day. South-southwest winds ahead of this front will become gusty this afternoon, reaching 35 kts at 925 mb, which could translate to a few gusts to 25-30 mph possible at the surface, especially in the late afternoon. Have continued on the higher side of guidance for maximum temperatures this afternoon...mainly in the lower 70s but cannot rule out a few mid-70s readings in the CT Valley and in eastern MA. Cooler over Cape Cod and the Islands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Tonight... Weak front shifts to the east. Clear skies. Winds shift to the W and weaken overnight. Lows mainly in the 40s except some 50s Cape and Islands. Friday...Strong high pressure centered over the Appalachians will provide bright sunshine. Northwest winds may gust to near 20 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures are only expected to be slightly cooler...in the upper 60s to around 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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* Above average temperatures with dry conditions lasting into Monday * Precipitation chances are increasing for the middle of next week. 19/00Z guidance remains in excellent agreement through this weekend. High pressure in control with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing. Some detail difference begin to arise with the handling of a closed mid level low across the southern tier of the USA early next week. These detail differences are almost entirely the result of timing differences in breaking down the strong mid level ridge along the Eastern Seaboard. The primary impact of this closed low will be to provide energy ahead of a cold front toward the middle of next week. Given the strength of the downstream ridge, will favor the less progressive guidance, which would be closer to the 00Z ECMWF. That said, it is becoming increasingly likely our region will see some light precipitation sometime late Monday night into Wednesday, with the most likely timeframe currently being around Tuesday. This could change over the next several days as the timing of a slow- moving front becomes clearer.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...Generally high confidence. 330 AM update... Areas of IFR conditions -- ceilings and visibilities -- in low clouds and fog, mainly south of the Mass Pike early this morning. The fog will be locally dense, especially along the south coast from New Bedford to Plymouth and on upper Cape Cod from Falmouth to Hyannis. Expecting any areas of fog to dissipate by mid-morning, with VFR and clear skies taking hold. Just a few cirrus clouds as a front approaches from the west late in the afternoon. SW winds may gust to 23-27 kt this afternoon, especially toward 21Z. VFR conditions tonight and Friday. Winds shifting to the W tonight and diminishing, then NW Friday with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF this morning, then High confidence through Friday. VFR conditions. However, there is a low risk for localized IFR ceilings developing around daybreak, especially to the east of the airport. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... High Confidence. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. Today and tonight... S-SW winds increase this afternoon with gusts to around 25 kt likely over all waters by late afternoon and a slight increase in outer seas to near 5 ft. These winds persist into the overnight but slowly diminish as they shift to the W late tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters. Friday...NW winds may gust to 20 kt and seas are forecast to slowly subisde to 3 to 4 ft. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High confidence. Great boating weather as high pressure prevails through this upcoming weekend with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Ahead of a very weak cold front, S-SW winds will gust 20-25 mph across much of the region this afternoon. There is a chance of a few gusts to 25-30 mph by 4 or 5 PM. Relatively mild conditions (highs in the low-mid 70s) and continued dry dewpoints in the mid 40s to low 50s will yield min RH values between 30 and 35 percent. With an overall recent lack of precipitation, there could be an elevated fire weather risk for today. A Special Weather Statement has been issued highlighting this risk. On Friday, NW winds will be a little less, closer to 20 mph, but the minimum RH will be closer to 30 percent. Thus there could again be some risk of elevated fire potential.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-250-251-254. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Field/Belk NEAR TERM...Field SHORT TERM...Field LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Field/Belk MARINE...Field/Belk FIRE WEATHER...Field

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