Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 280819 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...The 00z BRO sounding shows shows a pretty dry atms in
place over the RGV with only some shallow low level moisture
evident. A more moist and unstable atms looks to be located out
over the lower TX Gulf waters where KBRO radar shows isold to sct
marine conv moving west towards the coastline. 500 mb ridging
looks to remain in place over the RGV over the upcoming 24 hours
while an inverted trough over the marine areas will likely
maintain conv firing out east. Some MVFR ceilings may be possible
late in the current TAF period as the troffing gets a little
closer. For now will go with VFR conditions until the inverted
troffing over the Gulf of Mex builds further west and destabilizes
the atms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Light northeast to east winds with a few low clouds
prevail across Deep South Texas this evening. Expect VFR
conditions to continue for the next 24 hours as the 500mb ridge
across northern Mexico and west Texas provides subsidence across
the region. However, some brief MVFR visibilities are possible at
MFE around sunrise due to some patchy fog.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):
500mb ridge across northwest Texas and a 500mb inverted trough
moving across the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche
tonight will provide northeast winds aloft across the CWA. Low to
mid level moisture will be limited across south TX and the
northwest Gulf of Mexico but a few showers will develop offshore
the lower TX coast tonight and move possibly inland by Friday
morning. These showers will likely weaken and dissipate as they
reach the coast as the subsidence and dry air across southwest TX
will provide a hostile environment for convection in general.
Moisture will gradually increase across the western Gulf of Mexico
Friday into Friday night as the 500mb inverted trough across the
Bay of Campeche moves westward. This will provide a better chance
for showers across the coastal waters and the coastal sections of
the CWA tomorrow through tomorrow night.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday):
The H5 trough continues to drift westward through the weekend,
spreading deeper moisture across south Texas. The first wave
arrives early Saturday morning, so Gulf streamer showers will
have a better time moving ashore and remaining viable across
inland areas. Showers will still be widely scattered in nature,
and will have minute amounts of rainfall as they pass. Conditions
will become even more optimistic rainfall-wise on Sunday, noted by
PW values approaching 2 inches, and good lift aloft. Will continue
with chance rain for the peak heating hours. Rain chances will
taper somewhat overnight, but a continued moisture surge overnight
will keep the threat for showers through the night. PW values peak
Monday morning near 2.2 inches, keeping the rain chances going
through the day. Moisture and elevated lift wane after sunset, but
still ample moisture available for rainfall through midnight.
Isolated shower chances continue further into next week as ridging
remains off to the east and minimal capping effects continue. The
main focus will be the seabreeze each afternoon, with minimal
chances during the overnight hours.

Tonight through Friday Night: Seas were near 2 feet with
northeast winds near 14 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light
east winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with
surface high pressure across the eastern United States. The
pressure gradient will remain weak across the western Gulf of
Mexico Friday. Light northeast to east winds will prevail across
the lower Texas coast Friday into Fri night as a result. Swells
will increase across the offshore waters Friday into Fri night as
an easterly flow persists across the northern Gulf of Mexico.




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