000
FXUS64 KBRO 230602 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AGRICULTURAL BURNING ACROSS MEXICO MAY PROVIDE
SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE. CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS MOVES
BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE
AROUND 3Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO HAZE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO OUR SOUTH. CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  86  76  84 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  88  75  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              75  93  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  83  76  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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