Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251942
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
242 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): Subsidence continues
across the CWA this afternoon between the 500mb ridge across the
southwest United States and the broad 500mb low/inverted trough
across the Gulf of Mexico. Low to mid level moisture will increase
across the northwest Gulf and portions of south Texas tonight into
Tuesday as the upper level feature moves westward. Subsidence will
diminish across the lower TX coast tonight into Tuesday as a
result and isolated to scattered convection will develop offshore
tonight and inland Tuesday as the outflow from showers and
thunderstorms across the upper TX coast this afternoon provide a
focus for additional convection to develop. In addition...the
seabreeze front Tuesday will also provide a focus for convection
to develop across the lower TX coast early Tues afternoon and
further inland Tues afternoon as the seabreeze front moves
westward. Will continue to mention a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight and chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday as a result.

&&

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday):  A strong ridge will remain
positioned over Arizona and over the western North Atlantic while a
weakness inbetween the respective height centers will be positioned
over Louisiana and will extend north somewhat into the central
plains and south toward the CWA. The weakness will favor isolated
showers for the lower Texas coastal waters for a majority of the
period through Saturday. As the weakness fills and the mid level
ridges merge into one system spanning the entire Gulf Coast area,
somewhat drier weather will develop for the CWA Saturday night
through Monday. However, minor convective activity over the west
Gulf will be almost unavoidable given the anticyclonic surface
circulation pulling moisture up from the south. With no
significant weather feature to focus on during the period, went
with a standard model blend. Day time high temperatures and
overnight low temps will remain near to slightly above normal for
the entire forecast period.

&&

.MARINE:
Tonight through Tuesday night...Seas were near 2 feet with south
winds near 8 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light to moderate
south winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with
surface high pressure across the western north Atlantic extending
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will
remain weak across the lower Texas coast Tuesday. Light to
moderate south winds will prevail across the western Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday into Tuesday night as a result.

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure will reign supreme across
the Gulf the latter half of the week, resulting in more light to
moderate southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas. Isolated
showers will be possible during the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  96  82  94 /  20  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          81  96  80  95 /  20  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            78  98  79  98 /  20  40  20  20
MCALLEN              81 100  80  99 /  20  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      80 102  79 101 /  20  30  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  83  90 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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