000
FXUS64 KBRO 112110
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
310 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND INCREASE THURS
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THURSDAY
INTO THURS NIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURS NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS
TEXAS NEXT MONDAY. A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER COLD
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW
FINALLY DEVELOPS WITH 70S RETURNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. AS
THE FRONT BEARS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY STRENGTHENING
UPPER SUPPORT...IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...TO
COMBINE WITH THE LIFT OF THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTOR IS
A LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH A MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT
MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE SHOWERS THEN THUNDER WITH BEST CHANCE OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS.
GFS AND NAM SIMILAR WITH FRONT TIMING WITH ECMWF SLOWER BY 6
HOURS. WILL GO WITH THE QUICKER TIMING AS DID THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS SUNDAY WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO TAKE PLACE. FINALLY SOME CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE BUT WILL BE SLOW WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE NOT TO PASS
UNTIL MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS FINALLY
PUSHING OFF WELL INTO THE GULF. CLEARING SKIES...MUCH DRIER AIR
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY EQUALS COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER AS DOES THE LATEST FORECAST. DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MILD WITH SUNSHINE PREVAILING BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY AND COULD EVEN BE LOWERED A FEW MORE
DEGREES IF PATTERN IS REALIZED. WARMER WEATHER WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN.




&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL DIMINISH THURS NIGHT AND VEER TO THE
EAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MOVES
EASTWARD. &&


/FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. WEATHER THEN BECOMES MORE
ADVERSE AND POSSIBLY VERY HAZARDOUS AS A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. STRONG GRADIENT FOR 24 HOURS NOON SATURDAY
TO NOON SUNDAY PRODUCING NORTH WINDS OR 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A
SMALL WINDOW OF POSSIBLE GALES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN
SEAS FINALLY LAY DOWN. IMPROVED CONDITIONS START OFF NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS RETURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  58  51  73 /  40  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          49  60  49  74 /  40  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            46  58  49  74 /  40  20  20  20
MCALLEN              45  56  48  73 /  30  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      45  57  47  71 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   53  60  54  71 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
VEGA...GRAPHICASTS